Previewing the Iowa Caucuses

Well sports fans, the games finally begin on Monday with the Iowa caucuses. Hundreds of thousands of residents of the Hawkeye State will see endless political advertisements cease and will have the opportunity to officially put their marks behind their preferred candidate to be the President of the United States. In this post, I’m going to briefly explain how the caucus process works (it’s a bit different for the Democrats and the Republicans) and opine on what’s at stake for each of the contenders.

First, let’s look at the latest projections from the Real Clear Politics average of polls:

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Next, a brief explanation of the process. Unlike the normal procedure where voters go into private areas and cast their ballot all day long, in the caucuses the voters gather in gymnasiums or meeting rooms all at the same time. Caucus-goers have the opportunity to give speeches on behalf of the candidates they represent. The caucus takes a couple of hours so the participants must invest vastly more time than they would by just casting a vote and leaving. Neighbors can persuade neighbors to change their minds and this happens quite a bit on caucus day.

There’s an added wrinkle on the Dems’ side in that a candidate is not “viable” unless 15% of the people in the room support them. So, when people “go to their corners” to express their support, a candidate with less than 15% of the room will not gain any precinct delegates; those people must choose a different candidate or go home. So, on the very close Democratic race, the “2nd choice” of the Martin O’Malley supporters could tip the scales towards either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. His support is small, but the recent PPP poll indicated that Sanders was the 2nd choice of O’Malley voters by a factor of more than 2-to-1.

The key in the long slog to the respective party nominations is the accumulation of pledged delegates as determined by each state’s caucus or primary results but with Iowa, the actual number of delegates awarded to each candidate pales in comparison to the story that can be shared and the momentum that can be gained. The news coverage of the first voting is enormous and it’s the narrative that matters as much as the result. The narrative that emerges post-caucus is generally fueled by whether a candidate meets, exceeds or falls below expectations. So let’s go through each of the candidates and look at what’s specifically at stake, starting with the Dems.

Hillary Clinton: the former Secretary of State has a great deal to lose if she fails to win Iowa because the second state on the docket is New Hampshire, which is likely to go to Bernie Sanders, the senator for neighboring Vermont. Sanders never brings up the issue, but Mrs. Clinton’s on-going saga regarding her use of a private email server to conduct government business has put the state in play. Although her lead is narrow, there is one key factor that points to a victory: her supporters tend to be older while Sanders’ tend to be younger. In a recent CBS poll, Hillary won the 65+ vote by a 61% to 28% margin while Bernie carried the 18-to-29-year-old vote by a whopping 60 points, 74% to 14%. Older voters are typically more reliable voters so it’s more likely for her supporters to show up. Another factor to her advantage is that she is considered to have a superior “ground game” organization to get out the vote.

Forgetting the possibility for a moment that she might be indicted over the emails, if Hillary holds on to win Iowa, she will remain the prohibitive front-runner to win the nomination.

Bernie Sanders: the self-avowed socialist Senator has generated an astounding amount of enthusiasm on the liberal left of the Democratic party. He’s received more individual donations by this point in the process than any other candidate in the history of the country, including Barack Obama in 2008, and by a wide margin. Sanders is expected to win in New Hampshire on Tuesday, Feb 9th but expected to fare much worse when the southern states start voting later in the month, so an upset win here may be crucial to victory. Sanders has said that if he gets a huge voter turnout that he will likely win in Iowa and if the turnout is more modest, probably not. So Sanders’ chances of winning hinge on the core base of his support showing up to caucus. That’s hard to predict.

Some pundits have posited that Clinton will wipe out Sanders in the south regardless of whether she wins Iowa because of the Clintons’ popularity in the African-American community. I disagree. If Sanders pulls a rabbit out of the hat in Iowa and beats Hillary (as Obama did in 2008), the entire race will be upended. He will be twice the news story that he already is and all voters will notice.

Martin O’Malley: he’s likely only hanging around to see if the FBI recommends criminal charges against Hillary.

Now, to the GOP:

Donald Trump: this is the biggest mystery of the race. His attacks on Ted Cruz (regarding his birth country of Canada) have been relentless and he has been on top of the last 9 Iowa polls but his lead is still relatively small and there are two massive wild cards. First, what impact will his decision to blow off Thursday’s debate (in Des Moines) have on his support? The folks in Iowa take this process very seriously and some might not be thrilled if they think he isn’t taking it as seriously as they are. The second wild card is that, as with Sanders, many of Trump’s supporters have never participated in a caucus before. So the turnout is key and hard to forecast.

If Trump hangs on to win, it will reinforce his brand. His entire candidacy has been based on the fact that he’s leading in all the polls. He’ll get to give his first victory speech on national television. If, on the other hand, he does not win, that’s a big pop in his balloon.

Ted Cruz: by Monday, the Texas Senator will have completed what Iowans call the “full Grassley,” visiting all 99 counties. He has invested a tremendous amount of time and financial resources in Iowa and, in December, he was beating Trump in most of the polls. But Trump has brought him down in the last few weeks by pounding the notion that he might not even be eligible to run for president because of his Canadian birth, which about 1 in 5 voters find to be cause for concern. Also to Cruz’ disadvantage is the perception that he had his worst debate performance on Thursday, in part because he was the subject of incoming fire from multiple candidates.

If Cruz pulls off an upset, either through his superior ground game or from a low turnout of Trump voters, it will be a game changer. He will be the man who took down The Donald and gain enormous publicity from the win. Campaign donations will flow and he and his supporters (including most of conservative talk radio) will start talking about a two horse race. (In truth, many including Cruz are already calling it a two-way contest).

Now, if Cruz finishes a close second, he could still claim a moral victory about being the #1 non-Trump. But if he finishes a distant second place or even worse, now he’s just one of the crowd. He needs a near win if he doesn’t get a win.

Marco Rubio: despite the fact that he’s been the target of relentless super PAC attack ads, the Florida Senator has been slowly climbing in the Iowa polls to a fairly firm third place position. Therefore, he absolutely must “show” (finish at least third) to remain a viable candidate. This is a game of expectations and anything worse than third would be a loss. Sensing a little vulnerability in Cruz because of the Trump attacks, Rubio is doing a last-minute all-out blitz and emphasizing his faith. He’s making the point that he’s best positioned to unite the Republican party and making sure the evangelical voters see him in the same religious light as they see Cruz.

In a strange way, Rubio would be best off if Trump wins big, which is why he and his campaign have been training their rhetorical and TV fire on Cruz. The last thing any non-Trump candidate wants is the two-man-race narrative to be the big story because of a Cruz win. For the time being, until the field winnows, it’s best for Rubio if it’s Trump vs everyone else.

Dr. Ben Carson: most of the media and observers like myself have written off the retired neurosurgeon. Still, it wouldn’t shock me if he outperforms his poll numbers. He was the front-runner in the Hawkeye state a few months ago and has a lot of residual good will. Even so, unless he pulls a huge surprise and finishes in the top 3, I don’t see why he would bother to stay in the race.

Jeb Bush: the one thing we know that Bush has in abundance is money so he probably has a decent ground game. With Trump missing, he had his best debate performance on Thursday. The problem is that he is the quintessential candidate that just ever generate excitement or a compelling reason to vote for him. I think it’s more likely he’ll finish 7th or 8th than a surprise 4th over Carson.

Rand Paul: the Kentucky Senator did well in the debate on Thursday and, like his father, is still popular with young Republicans. It won’t matter. He’s currently 9th in the polls in the next states (New Hampshire and South Carolina). Unless he pulls a massive upset and finishes 3rd or 4th, he’s not going anywhere. Like his father before him, he’ll probably stick around for awhile so that he can share his libertarian views with upcoming debate viewers so I would not expect him to withdraw from the race unless his campaign is broke.

John Kasich: the Ohio Governor isn’t campaigning in Iowa. He’s putting all of his eggs in the New Hampshire basket, where he’s currently polling second (barely) to Trump. He has nothing at stake in Iowa.

Mike Huckabee: the former Arkansas Governor won these caucuses in 2008 but has been yesterday’s news this time around. I hate to write off such a well-liked figure. It’s possible that the final week negatives heaped onto Trump, Cruz and Rubio bring some voters “home” to the man they caucused for in ’08 but that’s a big ask. If he, as expected, doesn’t even finish in the top five in the state he won before, he’ll probably drop out of the race.

Chris Christie: like Kasich, Christie is going all in with New Hampshire so nothing that happens here matters. Unlike Kasich, the New Jersey Governor is no longer doing well in the Granite State either, currently polling in 6th place. My guess is that he drops out after the New Hampshire primary and endorses Bush or Kasich.

Carly Fiorina: she polled as high as 13% after the first two debates but hasn’t been able to sustain any momentum. Unless she spends her own fortune, I can’t see how she stays in the race for another week.

Rick Santorum: I honestly cannot understand why he’s still involved. In the undercard debate last Thursday, he used his first minute of time to complain about being in the undercard debate every time and not getting equal time. So I’ll try to give him equal time here. He was the surprise winner in 2008 as the anti-Romney but there are too many others this time competing for the Christian conservative vote. He’s not going to finish better than 9th or 10th and will be gone by this time next week unless he’s a masochist. Sorry, Senator Santorum, this isn’t going to happen.

My prediction: the polls are correct. Despite his debate snub, I think Trump will hang on to win but it will be close and Cruz will have a result that will give him license to declare it a two-man race. Rubio will finish in his solid third position and it will be on to New Hampshire.

As for the Dems, I think it’s going to be much closer than the polls are showing and we may not know the winner until the next day. Bernie’s enthusiastic horde of young supporters will pull him nearly even with Hillary. He has so much more buzz on his side that he might just pull it out and that news would be huge!  (Oh, that’s Trump’s line).

——- Some additional tidbits from two polls released Monday morning —–

Two new polls that came out today (Quinnipiac and Emerson polls):
— The Qunnipiac poll: Trump 31%, Cruz 24%, Rubio 17%
— The Emerson poll: Trump 27%, Cruz 26%, Rubio 22%

Some interesting notes:
— Emerson asked respondents about Trump’s decision to skip Thursday’s debate: 39% said they would be less likely to caucus for him as a result of the debate snub, only 14% said his absence would make it MORE likely they would support him.
— In the Q-poll, Rubio wins in a narrow three-horse race among respondents with a college degree (24% to 21% for both Cruz and Trump). For those WITHOUT a college degree, Trump wins big (36%) to Cruz’ 25% and Rubio’s 14%. Hmmmm.
— In the Q-poll, 28% said they might still change their mind (Trump’s supporters are most firmly committed).
— In the Q-poll, Trump is listed as the #1 “would never support” candidate (35%), Bush is #2 (21%), Cruz #3 (15%). Only 9% of respondents said they could never support Rubio, bolstering his argument that he is the best candidate to unite the Republican party.

Thanks for reading!

Chris Bodig