After over six months of debates and punditry, real human beings actually had the opportunity to support presidential candidates tonight and the results are….
— Ted Cruz was the definitive winner of the Iowa caucuses, besting Donald Trump by 4 points (28% to 24%), with Marco Rubio finishing 3rd (barely) at 23%.
— Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are in a photo finish, with Clinton leading by a microscopic 49.8%-to-49.6% margin as of this writing.
Forgive any typos or run-on sentences, I put this together fairly quickly.
Here are the results:
| Iowa Republicans | Final Vote % | Iowa Democrats | Final Vote % | |
| Ted Cruz | 27.7% | Hillary Clinton | 49.9% | |
| Donald Trump | 24.3% | Bernie Sanders | 49.6% | |
| Marco Rubio | 23.1% | Martin O'Malley | 0.6% | |
| Ben Carson | 9.3% | |||
| Rand Paul | 4.5% | |||
| Jeb Bush | 2.8% | |||
| John Kasich | 1.9% | |||
| Carly Fiorina | 1.9% | |||
| Chris Christie | 1.8% | |||
| Mike Huckabee | 1.8% | |||
| Rick Santorum | 1.0% |
What does it mean for all:
— Hillary Clinton: the prohibitive front-runner of the Democratic party got to have what sounded like a victory speech but not an actual victory speech, given the razor-thin margin she holds as of this writing. Assuming the numbers hold and she is the photo finish winner, it’s still a stunningly minor win over a socialist candidate who has not raised one penny from the type of big donors who fund most candidates’ super PAC’s. Even though it looks like she won by the most narrow of margins, apparently she still won, something she failed to do in 2008, when Barack Obama stunned the world with his improbable victory. Winning is winning. She is still the favorite to win the Democratic nomination, unless she’s indicted by the Justice Department.
— Bernie Sanders: even in what seems like it might be a narrow defeat, the unapologetic socialist Senator for Vermont was a winner and made a point. He seemingly came within a microscopic margin of the ultimate “establishment” candidate, a candidate who had all the benefits of her last name, her gender, her universal support of the entrenched political class, and her resume as both Senator and Secretary of State. Bernie’s message is getting out to the liberal wing of the Democratic party. He has the massive intangible asset of not having a super PAC, while Hillary takes tens of millions from big-money donors. He also has a message that progressives want, that he will accomplish what Obama could not. On the flip side, the Clinton theme sounds like she would merely be a care-taker to Obama’s legacy. Bernie has a much bolder vision than Hillary and, even if unrealistic, liberal voters respond much better to progressive ideas than the status quo. He has raised more money as a grass-roots-funded campaign than any campaign in the history of the nation and can claim a draw tonight in Iowa. With a near draw tonight, he has shown his supporters that he is a legitimate challenger to Secretary Clinton and should be able to continue his fundraising prowess.
— Martin O’Malley: his campaign is broke and he is suspending his campaign.
Now, the Republicans:
— Ted Cruz: obviously he was Monday’s biggest beneficiary of the Iowa caucuses. He put a great deal of his eggs in the Iowa basket and he rewarded himself as the decisive winner on the GOP side, a testimony to the time and money he spent there. He had a highly skilled “ground game” organization to turn out the vote. He received multiple endorsements from key figures in the Hawkeye State and successfully courted the evangelical vote. With a non-photo-finish win, he has proven that he will be one of the top contenders for the Republican nomination and, with so many southern states on the docket in the next 30 days, could easily be classified now as the front-runner for the GOP.
— Donald Trump: the man who likes to call everyone in the universe a “loser,” he was the biggest loser. Trump is the man who constantly touts how well he’s doing “in the polls.” Yet, despite having been the leader in Iowa in 15 of the last 16 polls, he finished second tonight in real voting, and barely second ahead of Rubio. The whole concept of Trump’s fantasy land campaign is that he’s a winner and winning. Well, now that the voting has begun, he’s not a winner. He came within a couple of thousand votes of finishing third. Whether this disappointing performance was the result of skipping Thursday’s debate or simply that so many of his supporters were un-serious voters who simply said “I’m with Trump” because they were too disinterested to study the other candidates, this is the beginning of the end for the reality show campaign and the return to sanity in the Republican nominating process. To his credit, Trump did not spew his traditional vitriol to the other Republican candidates in his concession speech but vowed to still gain the nomination.
— Marco Rubio: while finishing third, Rubio was nearly as big a winner as Cruz. He significantly out-performed his poll numbers and all of his so-called “establishment” competitors (Bush, Kasich, Christie) by more than 20 percentage points. Despite being more than 10 points behind Trump in virtually every respected poll, he finished just one percentage point beyond the flamboyant and bombastic Donald. Rubio has clearly emerged as the anti-Trump-Cruz candidate. He was magnanimous in his concession to Cruz for his fellow Senator’s victory tonight but sounded like a victor in the tone of his closing remarks.
— Ben Carson: in his fourth-place finish, Carson left the state early to go home to Florida to change clothes. I would be surprised if he doesn’t drop out of the race in the next few days.
— Rand Paul: despite a good debate Thursday, Paul fell nearly 20 points behind his father’s performance in the 2012 caucuses. His campaign still has some cash, so he’ll probably hang around to share his libertarian views in upcoming debates.
— Jeb Bush: what can you say? His father and brother both won the Iowa caucuses; Bush got less than 5,000 votes. Nobody wants another Bush. I feel sorry for him, he’s a victim of his name which evokes yesterday when the front-runners evoke tomorrow.
— John Kasich & Chris Christie: waiting for New Hampshire, they weren’t actively competing here.
— Carly Fiorina: she’ll likely withdraw from the process and wait until a clear anti-Trump-Cruz candidate emerges so she can endorse him.
— Mike Huckabee: the 2008 Iowa caucus winner, a class act, has already suspended his campaign.
— Rick Santorum: sad for the 2012 Iowa caucus winner, he fared even worse than Huckabee.
So now it’s on to New Hampshire.
As of Monday night, here is the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls for both the GOP and the Dems in New Hampshire (excluding Santorum and Huckabee, who are both polling at under 1%):
| Republicans: New Hampshire | RCP Avg% | Democrats: New Hampshire | RCP Avg% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 30.7% | Bernie Sanders | 53.9% | |
| Marco Rubio | 14.4% | Hillary Clinton | 40.7% | |
| John Kasich | 13.0% | |||
| Ted Cruz | 12.4% | |||
| Jeb Bush | 11.3% | |||
| Chris Christie | 5.4% | |||
| Carly Fiorina | 4.7% | |||
| Ben Carson | 2.9% |
In Sanders’ case, being the Senator from neighboring Vermont is a big asset. In addition, his performance in Iowa tonight adds credibility to his ability to win the big prize so his supporters should be emboldened.
Given the current numbers, it would take a political earthquake for either Trump or Sanders to lose in the Granite State. In Trump’s case, his biggest asset is the lack of an obvious “anti-Trump” as Cruz was in Iowa. Kasich, Christie, Bush, Rubio, and Cruz are all battling for the “not Trump” vote and it is interesting how fluid and close the race for 2nd place is. With the possible exception of Christie, it is plausible for any of those candidates to finish anywhere from 2nd to 6th.
But tonight’s decisive loss to Cruz was a political earthquake in the Republican nominating process. The Donald under-performed his RCP Iowa numbers by five points. With the added intangible “loser factor” from the Iowa results, expect all of the other excellent candidates to siphon off at least 10 points combined from Trump’s numbers. Trump still should be considered the favorite but, based on what happened tonight, if he still wins it will likely be by a much smaller margin than the polling would indicate. Cruz will steal votes from Trump’s legions, perhaps disillusioned by tonight’s mediocre result.
One rock solid prediction: Trump will not skip Saturday’s Republican debate on ABC in advance of next Tuesday’s primary vote.
As for the others, with the big money donors behind him, Bush could probably survive a 3rd or 4th place finish in New Hampshire and soldier on to South Carolina, where he has the backing of Senator Lindsey Graham. Despite the money edge, the name, and Graham’s support, he still is just 4th in the RCP polling average in the Palmetto State. That’s a few points behind Rubio, who just tonight got the endorsement of the state’s other sitting Senator, Tim Scott.
Regarding Kasich and Christie, for both it’s New Hampshire or bust: anything other than a solid 2nd place finish to Trump and their slim chances to win the nomination will disappear. Kasich still has a shot to accomplish this: he’s considered the most moderate of the GOP candidates, has the endorsements of several New Hampshire newspapers and the Boston Globe and may do well with independent voters, who have the choice to participate in either the Democratic or Republican primaries. In my view, Christie is just playing out the string for 8 more days. He won’t even make the top 5 in New Hampshire.
I will confidently predict that Rubio will have a major surge in New Hampshire polling in the next week. His solid 3rd place finish in Iowa gives him a momentum boost that the governors do not have. He has been making the case that he is the best candidate to unite the party and I think that will start to resonate with all of the on-the-fence voters.
Rubio has been the subject of a blistering negative ad blitz by Bush’s detestable super PAC (Right to Rise) and he’s still standing. Bush backers should spend that money against Trump but they’re still living in the fantasy world that their guy can win the nomination. There is no chance, zero, nada that Bush can win. There is not a thread of good news for Bush in any poll I’ve seen in months. Every dollar his odious super PAC spends against Rubio is a dollar spent to help elect Trump.
Why do I suggest that Rubio, who finished third in Iowa, will have a bigger boost in New Hampshire than Cruz, who won in Iowa? It is very simply that Rubio has a greater pool of candidates from which to siphon votes (Bush, Kasich, Christie, Fiorina) in a more independent state than the hard conservative Cruz does. Rubio plays better with moderate Republicans than Cruz. As the media narrative starts to label Rubio as the best bet to beat Trump and Cruz as the “establishment” candidate, those who don’t want either will coalesce around the Florida Senator.
There’s one other factor in Rubio’s favor, as opposed to Bush, Kasich and Christie. Today was the day that fourth quarter fund-raising totals were released by all the campaigns. The results showed that Rubio’s campaign raised $14 million in the last three months of 2015, double the haul by “Mr. Establishment” Bush and more than four times the hauls for Kasich and Christie. Strong fund-raising numbers inspire donor confidence in the viability of a presidential campaign, which then brings in more donor dollars and fuels the campaign’s continuing strength for the long haul of the primary season.
Thanks for reading!
Chris Bodig