Big Wins for Bernie and The Donald

Tonight the citizens of New Hampshire made their collective voices loud and clear: as far as they’re concerned, politics as usual is over. The Live Free or Die state voters rendered a decisive result by conferring landslide victories upon the two biggest outsider candidates in the race, the self-funded billionaire Donald Trump and the self-described socialist Bernie Sanders. Both results were called by all networks within seconds of the final poll closings at 8:00p ET.

Like last week, I put this together fairly quickly, so please forgive any typos or grammatical errors.

Here are the results as of this writing (not all the votes are in yet):

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New Hampshire is a peculiar state with respect to its voting rules. The state is filled with independents, each of whom has the ability to vote in either the Republican or Democratic primaries and the non-party-affiliated voters broke heavily for Trump and Sanders.

Although most of the politics and views of Bernie and The Donald could not be more different, the two do have a few similarities in their appeal. The two are the only candidates who do not have Super PAC’s supporting their campaigns which is why they are both effectively able to make the claim that they are the only men on either side who are not bought and paid for by the big donor class. So, in a state where independents rules, it is the independence that each has from big money that makes them alluring to voters who are fed up with business as usual in Washington.

Here’s the bottom line about what tonight’s results mean for all the candidates.

— Bernie Sanders: the 74-year old senator from Vermont leaves the Granite State with wind at his back. The margin of victory re-sets the race completely. Viewed until recently as a curiosity who had the ability to do well in mostly-white Iowa and New Hampshire has established himself as nearly the co-front-runner to win the Democratic nomination for president. Bernie has been significantly out-pacing Hillary in fund-raising and he’s doing it all $27 at a time, eschewing the big donors that line up behind the wife of the former president. Tonight’s blowout win will exponentially increase Sanders’ ability to raise the kind of money that he’ll need to wage an ad war on TV and develop the grassroots organizations that he’ll need throughout the rest of the nation.

— Hillary Clinton: the coronation of Secretary Clinton will not occur any time soon. This was the state where, eight years ago, after losing Iowa to Barack Obama, she staged a comeback victory, keeping the race close for months. As in Iowa, Clinton was absolutely crushed by the youth vote, losing (according to CNN exit polls) 85%-to-14% among voters under the age of 30. Even more shocking, the woman running to be the first female president in U.S. history lost among women voters 53%-to-46%. In New Hampshire, the most important candidate quality listed by the voters was being “honest and trustworthy.” Among those voters, Sanders won over 92% of the vote. 92%. (Not surprisingly, Mrs. Clinton did trounce her opponent 87%-to-13% with the voters who listed experience as the most important candidate quality).

— Donald Trump: by far and away the huuuuuuuge winner on the Republican side. Not only did he decisively trump his nearest rival by a nearly two-to-one margin, he got the perfect #2 finisher in Kasich. If Cruz, Rubio or Bush had finished a strong second, each would have had the potential to gain massive momentum in the next voting state of South Carolina (they’re all polling fairly well there). Kasich, on the other hand, has very little organization in the Palmetto State and will have a harder time immediately capitalizing on the momentum he has gained from tonight’s strong finish. So the Donald’s big win is not just a big win in and of itself, but the totality of the results made it more likely for him back it up with another win in the next contest.

— John Kasich: in the Live Free or Die state, the Ohio Governor needed to finish in a solid 2nd place position and so by accomplishing that goal he will live free and not die in this presidential derby. I’m personally gratified, because I’ve felt from the beginning that he is by far the party’s best potential president, the one who could effectively bring the country together. This strong result, being #1 among any candidates not named Trump, will give Kasich the fund-raising boost that his campaign desperately needs. As noted above, South Carolina will be a tough state for Kasich so the key will be to target victories in three to four of the 15 Super Tuesday states that vote on March 1st. If he can remain in the race and competitive until March 15th, that’s the date that Ohio votes and it’s a winner-take-all state with respect to convention delegate allocation. There will probably be a good deal of heartache on right wing talk radio tomorrow because Kasich is not popular among true conservatives. For his continued viability, Kasich will need to use the debates to show his conservative bona fides and provide satisfactory explanations for the parts of record that true reds find odious (such as accepting Obamacare money for Medicaid expansion in his state). Kasich is a big long shot but now still in the race.

— Jeb Bush: it’s a weird political year where the son and brother of former presidents can finish in a virtual tie for third (at 12%) eight days after a sixth place finish and have it be considered somewhat of a political victory. Despite middling results, the well-funded Bush campaign will move on to South Carolina. By finishing slightly ahead of Rubio, that’s a win in and of itself. I can’t believe I’m writing this but it’s possible that former Governor Bush is now the best the hope to defeat Trump or Cruz. Since he’s the only one taking on Trump directly in the debates (and getting better at it), he can thank Governor Christie for paving a new path to potentially take the anti-Trump-Cruz position in this derby.

— Marco Rubio: it is tempting to look at this disappointing result as the beginning of the end for the Florida Senator. He surged at the last minute last Monday in Iowa, nearly toppling Trump for 2nd place in the Hawkeye State and was 2nd place in the New Hampshire polls taken in the following few days. Obviously, the disastrous take down in Saturday’s debate by Chris Christie stalled that momentum in its tracks. Still, Rubio is an attractive candidate for more moderate or reasonable citizens who want anybody but Trump or Cruz. In one key exit poll, Rubio remained the winner among voters who considered electability as the #1 issue, garnering a third of those voters. Even if his positive message has been revealed to be someone scripted and robotic, he still checks a lot of boxes for a lot of different types of voters on the Republican side. In his remarks to his supporters tonight, he took full responsibility for his poor performance in Saturday’s debate. As time goes by, the effect of the debate gaffe will start to fade and, in a jumbled race, as long as he still has supporters willing to fund his campaign, he should be able to continue. His Super PAC clearly still has a lot of money as they’re still running national ads on Fox News.

— Ted Cruz: this was an almost irrelevant state for the Texas Senator but he did very well in a state not up his alley. His more significant strength will be in South Carolina and also the so-called “SEC primary” on March 1st when many southern states that are the core of the true conservatives go to the ballots. Cruz remains a formidable, well-funded candidate who should be in this for the long haul. Cruz, like Rubio and everyone else, delivers memorized 30 second talking points. He was the big winner this week because Christie decided that Rubio was a bigger target for him and left Cruz alone.

— Chris Christie: I would like to be the first to congratulate the New Jersey Governor for taking down the so-called establishment’s best candidate (Rubio) without accruing any benefit to himself, as I predicted here last night. Earlier in the week, in an interview on Fox, he was asked what would be a good night and his answer was “first among the governors.” Well, he finished last in the Kasich-Bush-Christie lane for the second week in a row. Not only did he finishe last among the governors, he finished behind Rubio too despite the debate take down!! This has got to drive him nuts because, to coin a phrase, he’s eating dog food while Kasich and Bush are eating the steaks that he bought for them (by bloodying Rubio). The #1 thing Christie accomplished Saturday night was to make it less likely that anybody can stop Trump or Cruz from winning the GOP nomination, therefore making it more likely that we can look forward to President Clinton or President Sanders. Good job, Governor. You did a nice job in 2012 too with the endless photo ops with President Obama after Hurricane Sandy, helping ensure the defeat of Mitt Romney. You’re now two for two in doing the other party’s dirty work for them. I don’t see how he continues his campaign after this complete disaster.

— Carly Fiorina: after two 7th place finishes, it’s time to start campaigning for VP.

— Ben Carson: the good doctor didn’t really try hard here. His entire campaign has been somewhat bizarre so he’ll probably stick around until the South Carolina vote. Politically speaking, he’s a dead man walking but he’s a really nice man so we’ll cut him some slack.

So what’s on the docket next? Here’s what is upcoming, first for the Republicans:

• Debate on Saturday on CBS
• South Carolina primary on Saturday, Feb. 20th
• Nevada caucus on Tuesday, Feb 23rd

Today CBS released their criteria for who will be included in Saturday’s debate, and it’s potentially bad news for both Christie and Fiorina. The three criteria are listed in order below.

1. Top 3 finishers in Iowa (Trump, Cruz, Rubio)
2. Top 5 finishers in New Hampshire (add Kasich and Bush)
3. The top 5 in a blended average of national and South Carolina specific polls (add Carson)

Neither Christie or Fiorina qualify for the stage based on any of those three criteria. They’re currently 7th and 8th respectively in the national poll averages and far, far behind the top 5 in the last Palmetto State polls. Christie’s campaign is almost out of cash and, if he can’t participate in Saturday’s debate, there’s no path forward. He’s already canceled events in South Carolina on Wednesday, a clear indicator that he’s done.

As for Carly, I don’t see how she continues her campaign. She was perhaps unfairly excluded from the most recent debate but that’s happened and baked into the cake. Off the stage again? Out of sight, out of mind, which eventually means out of money.

The bottom line about what happened tonight in New Hampshire is that the path to the nomination for Donald Trump has improved dramatically. The more players that remain in the race, the more that benefits the big fish as the smaller fish fight each other with their ad dollars and compete for the non-Trump votes.

Next, what’s on the docket for the Democrats:

• Debate on Thursday on PBS (simulcast on CNN)
• Nevada caucus on Saturday, Feb. 20th
• South Carolina primary on Saturday, Feb. 27th

The South Carolina primary in particular has long been considered a firewall for Secretary Clinton because she is currently much more popular among African-American voters than Senator Sanders. In the 2008 primary, 55% of the Democratic electorate in South Carolina were African-American.

Mrs. Clinton should be favored to win both there and in Nevada but don’t underestimate the momentum that Sanders will gain from tonight’s decisive victory. The Clinton campaign will try to spin this as a “regional victory” for Sanders because he represents neighboring Vermont. The truth is, however, that the two states are very, very different. New Hampshire is a true swing state in national elections while Vermont is reliably liberal.

Regardless of whether you view Sanders’ proposals as pie in the sky and unrealistic, what he’s talking about will resonate with black voters when they get to know him better. In an effort to further his introduction into the African-American community, Bernie has a breakfast scheduled tomorrow with the Reverend Al Sharpton.

My guess is that both the South Carolina and nationwide polls will start to tighten in the next week and we’ll have a highly contested contest between the Sanders and Clinton and I think it’s not unreasonable to think that Bernie will start to emerge as the front-runner. While the FBI investigation into her private email server continues to drag down Clinton’s candidacy, her biggest problem is that her message is “more of the same” (regarding Obama’s policies) while Sanders’ message is “more, much, much more.”

Thanks for reading.

Chris Bodig