A Complete Guide to Super Tuesday

After months and months of campaigning, bloviating, debating and four state elections, the big one comes on Tuesday, when the voters in 12 different states cast their ballots for one of the seven candidates still running to be the President of the United States. This piece is straight analysis so there will be no Trump-Cruz-Clinton-Sanders bashing today.

For the Republicans, it’s Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Vermont. The Democrats don’t cast votes in Alaska but do cast votes in Colorado and American Samoa (yes, U.S. territories vote in the primary season).

Let’s start with the Republicans. It’s shaping up to be another banner day for front-runner Donald Trump. The billionaire is likely to win almost all of the 11 states on the docket on Tuesday.

First of all, here is a chart of where the 11 contests stand based on the latest Real Clear Politics average of polls. It should be noted that a lot of these polls were conducted by organizations that don’t do it full time so some are a bit unscientific. Also in many states there are only one or two polls to look at. In some cases, the polls are older and don’t reflect the current dynamic of the race. For example, the only Arkansas poll was taken three weeks ago, the lone Vermont poll was conducted from 2/2 to 2/17, the last Minnesota and Alaska polls were conducted in January.

So take most these numbers with a bag of grains of salt. Based on the volume and recency of poll data, I would consider the projections in Texas, Georgia, Massachusetts and Virginia to be likely the most accurate.

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One thing you may notice in some of the state polls is that the numbers don’t add up to 100%. This is because most polls allow respondents to say they’re undecided. The Minnesota, Vermont and Alaska polls in particular don’t even add up to 80%, so expect the results to be higher for all. Most of the numbers add up to the low 90’s so there’s potential for Trump, Cruz and Rubio in particular to outperform the percentages you see here. Rubio in particular has done well with people deciding at the last minute. It’s hard to say whether Marco’s last minute mud wrestling fight with The Donald will help or hurt him. He’s essentially imitating Trump in the game of name calling.

Now, the vote projections are one thing, but it’s the convention delegate accumulation that ultimately matters. The Republican National Committee set up the rules for most of the early contests to distribute delegates on a proportional basis with minimum thresholds that vary from state to state. On March 15th, many of the primary votes go to winner take all, which will be immensely beneficial to Donald Trump if it remains a five-man race. Trump will likely win the vast majority of the 11 states voting on Tuesday. The goal for the others is meet these thresholds so that they get at least some delegates and thus have the ability to mount a come from behind win over Trump if and when the race narrows to a two or three man derby.

I’m going to go through the delegates available and rules in each of the 11 states so, when you’re following Tuesday, you’ll have an idea if your favorite candidate will gain any delegates at all in each of the states. Most states allocates delegates in two ways: there are three delegates up for grabs in each congressional district and then a certain number of at large delegates assigned proportionally provided the candidate meets a minimum standard. Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts, Virginia and Vermont do NOT use the congressional district method, they do proportional allocation state-wide. Here are the details for each state.

• Texas (155 delegates up for grabs): the Lone Star State is the biggest prize on Super Tuesday and, as his home state, it as an absolute must win for Senator Ted Cruz. The good news for Cruz is that he’s beating Trump in all of the polls and he has the endorsement of Governor Greg Abbott and former Governor Rick Perry. So I would expect him to win fairly comfortably. Keep any eye on whether Marco Rubio can get 20% of the vote since that is the minimum threshold percentage to get any delegates at all. Every one counts.
• Georgia (76 delegates): Trump will likely win here. In this and the other southern states, it will be key to watch the battle for 2nd place between Cruz and Rubio. As with Texas, there’s a 20% minimum to accumulate at-large delegates. The battle for 2nd matters state-wide and also district by district. In each Congressional district, if no candidate gets 50% of the vote, then the top two vote-getters split on a 2-to-1 basis.
• Tennessee (55 delegates): there’s been very little polling done here so what you see above is the result of one single poll. Still, my instincts say the numbers look right. Rubio might get a bump of a couple of points with a last minute endorsement from Senator Lamar Alexander. Like Texas and Georgia, No Delegates For You if you don’t get at least 20% of the vote.
• Alabama (47 delegates): again, it’s a 20% minimum to gain any delegates. Trump should do well here with yesterday’s endorsement of popular Senator Jeff Sessions, the one current politician whose anti-immigration views are about as hard line as Trump’s. As with Georgia and Tennessee, the battle for 2nd will be important in the delegate winning game.
• Virginia  (46 delegates): in the Commonwealth of Virginia, the delegates are allocated proportionally to all candidates regardless of how many votes are attained so this is the first state on our list where John Kasich and Ben Carson will get a few nibbles. This is a “tweener” state with southern roots but large establishment-esque Washington D.C. suburbs so Rubio really needs to beat Cruz here (and not in a photo finish) to establish that he’s the best of the senators to beat Trump as the future contests move away from the evangelical states.
• Oklahoma (40 delegates): the polls show Rubio and Cruz being more competitive with Trump than in most of the others so it would be huge for either to pull of an upset win here. Rubio has the support of Senator Jim Inhofe and former Senator James Coburn, which might help a little. In the Sooner State, the minimum vote threshold is 15% so the top three should all pick up some delegates here.
• Massachusetts (39 delegates): same as Virginia, no thresholds so everyone will get a bite. The neighboring state to New Hampshire, the polls look like what the results probably would have been in the Granite State if Rubio had not had his debate stumble courtesy of Chris Christie. Trump will win big here. Kasich’s 100-to-1 shot candidacy could really use a symbolic 2nd place finish.
• Minnesota (38 delegates): it’s just one poll (taken in January) but the Minnesota result listed above is interesting, with Trump in 3rd place. Remember, this is the state that elected former pro wrestler Jesse “the Body” Ventura to the governorship and comedian Al Franken to the Senate. So I really have no idea what will happen there. Only 10% is needed for proportional delegates. For whatever it’s worth, Rubio has the backing of former Governor Tim Pawlenty (a presidential candidate himself four years ago). If the Florida Senator is going to win anywhere on Super Tuesday this might be his best shot but, with no polling, there’s no way to really know.
• Arkansas (37 delegates): it’s a 15% minimum in Razorback country. The only poll taken here is three weeks old so there’s no way to know what will happen. Again, the leader in establishment endorsements is Rubio, who has the support of the popular Governor Asa Hutchinson.
• Alaska (28 delegates): 13% minimum to get delegates. With Sarah Palin’s high-profile endorsement, this should be Trump country but who knows if people there are as sick of her as the rest of the USA.
• Vermont (16 delegates): the smallest prize of the day, it’s a 20% minimum for delegates.

OK, so what does this all mean. This is a very loose projection because of the fact that some delegates are awarded per Congressional district and others are awarded state-wide but, based on polls as shown and the expected last-minute deciders falling as they have in the first four states, this is approximately what that would mean with respect to delegate accumulation for each of the candidates. With all lack of humility, as Doc Brown would have said to Marty McFly, “please forgive the crudity of this model:”

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So, if this delegate projection is in the ballpark, Donald Trump would be about 27% of the way to the magic number of 1,237 delegates to clinch the Republican nomination. Gulp. When you consider that the mostly winner-take-all states start in two weeks, it seems like a hurculean task to stop him. Trump is currently leading everybody (including hometown Rubio) in the Florida polls by 20%: that’s 99 delegates. You would think that he’s a virtual lock to win in New York and New Jersey (143 combined). With my projection, that would put Trump nearly halfway to pay dirt. We’ll see what actually happens tomorrow but it’s increasingly likely that, unless there’s some sort of consolidation among Rubio, Cruz, Kasich and Carson (and really soon), Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for President of the United States.

Incidentally, on Meet the Press, Chuck Todd projected that Trump would have much fewer delegates (289) than my model, putting Rubio 2nd with 184 and Cruz 3rd with 154. So I would expect the actual result to be somewhere in between Todd’s projection and mine. NBC is clearly predicting Rubio to out-perform his poll numbers and for the recent litany of attacks on Trump’s character to cause his to sag. That may be so but Trump has been teflon to everything up to now.

Trump will be the big winner on Tuesday. That’s a lock. The real key is whether the results craft a narrative that puts Rubio or Cruz squarely as #2. NBC predicted that Rubio will emerge tomorrow with more delegates. If that happens, Cruz is finished. The states voting (including his own home state) line up much better for the most conservative of the candidates. The big states tomorrow have been dubbed the “SEC Primary.” Cruz’ campaign put a lot of early work and money into the southern states. If he emerges 3rd in the delegate count after what was supposed to be his big day, I can’t imagine him continuing.  On the other side, in the projection offered by yours truly, Cruz would emerge with a 2nd win and 72 more delegates from Rubio. With that scenario, the Texas Senator will call on Rubio to get out of the race. When he doesn’t, it will all be to the benefit of Mr. Trump.

As for Kasich, he’s still waiting for his home state of Ohio on March 15th with 66 delegates in a winner take all format. He’s doing so poorly elsewhere that he really isn’t hurting either Rubio or Cruz right now. I expect he’ll stick around regardless as will Dr. Ben Carson who is marching to the beat of his own drummer.

 

Now let’s look at the Democrats. With her blowout win in South Carolina on Saturday in which she won by a nearly 3-to-1 margin (73.5% to 26%), Hillary Clinton is clearly in the drivers’ seat in the race against Bernie Sanders. After narrow wins in Iowa and Nevada and Sanders’ resounding victory in New Hampshire, Secretary Clinton was able to run up the score in the Palmetto State due to an overwhelming margin of victory with the African-American vote. While Bernie won with white voters (54% to 46%), Hillary earned an astounding 86% of the black vote, which was higher than most of the polls suggested. Clinton was clearly helped by the late endorsement of the most popular black politician in the state, longtime House rep James Clyburn. It also didn’t hurt that she was endorsed by actor Morgan Freeman, who lent his voice to a couple of powerful ads, one of which was specifically targeted to the black community. If you had to pick one voice in the world to have behind a political ad, Freeman’s would be the one.

Anyway, the lineup of states on Super Tuesday, most of which are in the south, appears to be right in Clinton’s wheelhouse and she should pick up the majority of the delegates. With large blocs of black voters in the Democratic party, expect blowout victories in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. Sanders will easily win his home state of Vermont but really needs to pull out a few others.

Below is a table of the Real Clear Politics average of polls in the Tuesday states. As with the GOP polls, the Minnesota and Colorado numbers in particular should be viewed with healthy skepticism because they were taken in January and November respectively, long before Bernie won New Hampshire and pulled nearly even with Hillary in the national polls. (And there’s been no polling in American Samoa so I projected a two-to-one margin for the more famous Clinton).

Since the Democrats allocate convention delegates proportionally in all contests, it’s fairly easy to project (based on the polls) how many delegates each candidate will in (Sanders should win all 16 in Vermont because the rules are that a candidate must reach a 15% threshold to gain any delegates at all).

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Although this projection looks pretty bleak for the socialist senator, I would expect Sanders to wind up winning Massachusetts and he might pull off a win or two between Colorado, Minnesota and Oklahoma. If Bernie is only able to win in Vermont and Massachusetts, that’s a really bad story to tell going forward. The media will write him off and it’s likely that his historic level of grass roots fundraising will start to dry up.

Now, if you’re wondering why Clinton has an overwhelming lead in delegates and is projected to be nearly halfway to clinching the nomination after just 16 contests, it’s because she has the support of 460 superdelegates. What are superdelegates? They are elected and other party officials who are free to choose whichever candidate they like and are not bound by the votes of the electorate. It’s not exactly a secret that Secretary Clinton is the preferred candidate of the Democratic establishment and this is why she’s got virtually all of these delegates in her corner. So Senator Sanders has to win approximately 55% of the vote nationwide in order to made up for this disadvantage. The way the race is trending it looks like Hillary is going to win the nomination fair and square but if events turn (such as more bad news regarding the ongoing FBI investigation into her private email server), her superdelegate advantage could turn into her ace in the hole. Although it looks unlikely now, if Sanders winds up significantly ahead in “pledged” delegates but loses due to the superdelegates, there’s going to be a brouhaha!

Thanks for reading!

Chris Bodig