Tomorrow the citizens of two more states (Utah and Arizona) will cast ballots for one of the five remaining presidential candidates, with the Democrats also caucusing in Idaho. The Democratic race is functionally over. Even if Bernie Sanders wins every remaining state, Hillary Clinton will still be the nominee, short of a major development in her email scandal.
So let’s focus on the Republicans and their nominating contest, which would also be all but settled if the front-runner wasn’t such a controversial candidate. According to CNN’s numbers, billionaire Donald Trump has a commanding lead over his competitors with 683 convention delegates compared to 421 for Texas Senator Ted Cruz and 145 for Ohio Governor John Kasich. With 19 states still to vote (and territory American Somoa also voting tomorrow), Trump needs to win about 60% of the remaining delegates to reach the magic number of 1,237, which would give him a majority and guarantee the nomination for president. This is a fairly tall order but definitely achievable since most of the upcoming primaries are “winner take all” delegates or “winner take most.” Cruz, on the other hand, needs to win 89% of the remaining delegates to get to 1,237, a virtually impossible task. Therefore, for either Cruz or Kasich, the only path to the nomination is through a contested convention in which nobody gets to a majority. More on what that would look like in another post in a few days.
OK, let’s look at tomorrow’s contests first. Arizona had 58 delegates up for grabs and it is a true winner take all primary. The Grand Canyon State is tailor made for Trump, whose signature campaign promises are to build a wall on the southern border, have Mexico pay for it, and deport the 12 million illegal immigrants who are already in the country. Arizona Governor Jan Brewer is a Trump supporter as is the controversial but popular Sheriff Joe Arpaio. There isn’t much reliable polling in Arizona but the three polls I’ve seen give Trump a double digit lead over Cruz and I would expect him to win.
There are two factors, however, that accrue to the benefit of Senator Cruz, who also has a very tough immigration position. One, Marco Rubio is now out of the race and Cruz stands to gobble up more than 50% of his supporters, with Kasich getting about 35% and Trump 15% (this is my educated guess based on “2nd choice” polls I’ve seen over the last month). The second factor is that Arizona is a “closed” primary, in which only registered voters can participate. Trump has ridden a wave of crossover Democrat or independent voters to his delegate lead. In the nine closed contests waged this month, Cruz bested Trump in five of them (Alaska, Oklahoma, Kansas, Idaho and Maine) with the Donald prevailing in Florida (his second home), Hawaii, Kentucky and Louisiana. But it should be noted that Cruz clearly would have won in Kentucky and Louisiana if Rubio had not been in the race. He lost both by less than 5 points.
To Trump’s benefit, Arizona is an early voting state, so citizens have been going to the polls for a few weeks already. This means that an untold number of votes have already been cast for Rubio, who is no longer in the race. Many of these votes would likely have gone to Cruz so that helps Trump. Incidentally, early voting makes sense in the fall but makes NO SENSE WHATSOEVER in the primary season when people drop out of the race along the way.
How important is Arizona for Cruz? If he loses, he would need to win 96% of the other delegates between now and the end of the process in June, which includes New York and New Jersey, Trump’s “home turf.” That obviously will not happen.
In the Utah caucuses tomorrow, there will be 40 delegates awarded to the candidates. If any candidate gets 50% of the vote, they get all 40 delegates. If not, the delegates will be distributed proportionally (with a minimum of 15% required). This might be the worst state in the United States for Trump and the best for Cruz. Utah is as conservative as it gets. Only one poll has been released since last Tuesday and it shows Cruz getting 53% of the vote, with 29% for Kasich and just 11% for Trump so, for the first time, the bombastic front-runner might be the ultimate loser by finishing last. In Utah, Cruz has the support of Mitt Romney and this is the one state where Romney’s endorsement will have some weight.
If Cruz falls just short of 50%, then the delegates will be split between him, Kasich and (probably) Trump. My guess is that if Cruz can’t get 50% then Trump will probably at least get the 15% he would need to get a few delegates.
What’s fascinating (and depressing, if you’re a Republican) about Trump’s candidacy is how his unique brand is re-drawing the electoral map. Utah is about as reliable a state for Republicans as you can get, going red every four years in presidential contests for the last 52 years. However, Trump is no ordinary Republican. The KSL poll taken Sunday shows Hillary Clinton beating Trump by 2 points in the Beehive State. Yes, Trump is so unpopular in Mormon Utah that he could theoretically lose it for the GOP. Incidentally, in the same poll, Cruz beats Hillary by 28 points and Kasich beats her by 30.
After the flurry of contests since March 1st, the next three weeks provide relative calm. Going forward after the Utah and Arizona contests tomorrow, North Dakota holds a state convention on April 1st in which it will select delegates but they will be unbound to any presidential nominee, which makes the 28 chosen essentially “free agents.” Then, on Tuesday, April 5th, 45 delegates will be selected in the Badger state of Wisconsin. After that, however, there’s nothing on the docket until the April 19th primary in New York. That Empire State primary begins which will be almost certainly the end of the Cruz campaign’s dream of making it to the 1,237 delegates required to win the nomination. On April 26th, five northeast states hold their primaries (Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania).
Let me explain how impossible it is for Cruz to get to 1,237. He and his campaign have been making the case that John Kasich is playing the role of “spoiler,” correctly pointing out that there is no mathematical path for Kasich to get to the majority total of 1,237. But Cruz, while maintaining a mathematical path, does not have a practical one. If we assume that Cruz has a banner night tomorrow, winning all 98 delegates in Utah and Arizona, he would still need to win 87% of the remaining delegates between now and the end of the primary season on June 7th. With all of those northeast states on the docket (and also New Jersey on June 7th), getting to the majority is pure fantasy. If Cruz loses in Arizona (as expected) and wins Utah, he would need 94% of the remaining delegates to get to the magic number. Not happening, no way, no how.
I point this out because, when you hear Cruz and certain arithmetically challenged members of the media who say that Kasich is “delusional” for remaining in the race because he has no path to the majority of delegates, just remember that anybody who says Cruz has a path to 1,237 is equally delusional. The biggest reason that Cruz wants Kasich out of the race is that, if there are only two candidates left when the convention begins, he is the most likely person who could prevail in a contested convention. Again, I’ll have more on what a contested convention looks like in another post shortly.
Now, to be fair about it, the presence of Kasich in a three-person race does have the potential to help Trump get to 1,237 by splitting the vote in such a way that Trump gobbles up the winner-take-all or winner take “most” delegate contests. If Cruz loses to Trump by a few points in Arizona and/or finishes just barely shy of 50% in Utah, the drumbeat for Kasich to get out of the race will be thunderous because there is the potential that he will indeed play spoiler tomorrow night.
However, after tomorrow night, wen the race moves to Wisconsin and the blue states of the northeast, Kasich is better positioned to prevent Trump from running the table than Cruz.
By the way, we should not assume that, if Kasich was no longer involved, that all of support would necessarily go to Cruz. Kasich’s support comes mostly from voters who want an experienced candidate and from more moderate Republicans (like myself). Cruz is anything but moderate and remember, he is a first-term senator, so some Kasich voters might gravitate to Trump. If you had asked me personally about this a few months ago, I would have picked Trump over Cruz. I’ve changed my mind recently but it remains a tough call for me. I don’t like Cruz’ rigidity and “don’t compromise” mantra. One of the things I like about Kasich is his desire to work across the aisle and Trump promises the same.
Thanks for reading!
Chris Bodig