The Battle for the Senate

With all of the drama surrounding the race for the White House, there remains a crucial subplot, the fate of the United States Senate. No matter what happens in the final eight days of the presidential election, the House of Representatives is almost certain to remain in Republican hands but the balance of power in the Senate is very much in doubt.

The GOP currently controls 54 of the chamber’s 100 seats (each of the 50 states get two senators), the Democrats have 44 with Independents Bernie Sanders (Vermont) and Angus King (Maine) essentially also in the Democratic camp.

At stake will be the determination of whether the next Senate Majority Leader will continue to be Mitch McConnell (Kentucky) or whether it will be Chuck Schumer (New York), who is the top-ranked Democrat with the pending retirement of Nevada’s Harry Reid.

How big are the stakes? When it comes to the ability of either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton to influence legislative priorities, the control of the Senate is everything, especially when it comes to the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS). Unlike most legislation, which must pass both the House and Senate, the confirmation of a Supreme Court justice is solely in the purview of the 100 Senators. Traditional Senate rules require a 60-to-40 majority to confirm a president’s nominee but the outgoing Reid has indicated, if his party wins back the chamber, that they will alter the rules to require a straight up-and-down vote where majority rules. If this rules change were to be implemented (referred to in Senate parlance as the “nuclear option”), a Democratic controlled Senate could confirm any Clinton nominee with just 51 votes. Incidentally, if there is a 50-50 deadlock in the Senate, the Vice-President is the tie-breaker.

Until the recent bombshell revelation that the FBI was once again looking into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server, most political scientists, pundits and politicians assumed that the race for the White House was over. So you’ve seen Republican House and Senate candidates urging Republicans dissatisfied with Trump to make sure to vote down-ballot for the GOP in order to provide a “check” on Hillary, in particular the likely liberal SCOTUS justices she might appoint.

Regardless of whether you’re a Trump supporter, Clinton supporter or “none of the above” voter, the outcome of the Senate races is critical because it will determine the future direction of SCOTUS. So if that’s an issue you care about, you’ll want to pay attention to the “up for grabs” contests.

Senators serve six-year terms so there are 34 Senate contests being waged throughout the U.S. during this election cycle. The Republicans, riding an anti-Obamacare Tea Party wave, scored a massive mid-term win in 2010 and therefore have more seats to defend this year. Of the 34 seats being contested next week, 24 are currently held by the GOP and just 10 by the Dems.

Many of the 34 contests are essentially over. The Democrats will definitely hold 9 of their 10 seats with the Republicans certain to hold 14 of their 24. That leaves a maximum of eleven seats where the outcome is at least somewhat in doubt.

Let’s take a look at those eleven Senate swing races, with the acknowledgement that four of them have outcomes that are now extremely likely to manifest at this point (Arizona for John McCain, Ohio for Rob Portman, Illinois for Tammy Duckworth and Wisconsin for Russ Feingold). The chart below indicates the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls for all eleven of these races.

 

Wordpress Table Plugin

 

Anyway, as we can see from this chart, if the polls are precise, the GOP will narrowly retain control of the Senate and, given Hillary’s recent troubles (ObamaCare premium hikes, embarrassing Wiki-Leaks revelations and the renewed FBI email inquiry), I think this is likely to happen.

But of course that outcome is anything but assured so I’ll be diving into the details of these races. If we assume that the current polling of the Portman-Strickland, McCain-Kirkpatrick, Duckworth-Kirk, and Johnson-Feingold contests hold up, it will be a pick-up of two seats for the Democrats.

That means that the Republicans would need to win five of the other seven seats to hold the Senate UNLESS Trump wins the presidency, in which case four seats would be sufficient. The feeling here is that a Trump win of the presidency would by definition include coattails long enough to hold the Senate. So let’s go with the assumption that the magic number is five (out of seven) for the GOP and the magic number is three (out of seven) for the Dems. For reasons I will detail below, I expect that Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto will defeat Republican Joe Heck in Nevada, which would mean a very small margin for error for the Republicans.

Anyway, these are those seven races:

“Swing” Senate Races: GOP needs five out of seven to hold the Senate if Hillary Clinton is President

Florida: Marco Rubio (R) vs Patrick Murphy (D) (polls close at 7:00p ET)

New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte (R) vs Maggie Hassan (D) (polls close at 7:00p ET)

Indiana: Todd Young (R) vs Evan Bayh (D) (polls close at 6:00p local time, parts of state both ET and CT)

Missouri: Roy Blunt (R) vs Jason Kander (R) (polls close at 7:00p CT/8:00p ET)

North Carolina: Richard Burr (R) vs Deborah Ross (D) (polls close at 7:30p ET)

Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey (R) vs Katie McGinty (D) (polls close at 8:00p ET)

Nevada: Joe Heck (R) vs Catherine Cortez Masto (D) (polls close at 7:00p PT)

Now, let’s take a look at those seven tightest races, starting with Florida.

 

MARCO RUBIO (R) vs PATRICK MURPHY (D)

FLORIDA

Marco Rubio (R) — incumbent (45 years old)

First-term Senator (former candidate for President)

Florida Speaker of the House (2006-2008)

Univ of Florida, University of Miami Law School

Patrick Murphy (D) (33 years old)

2 terms in U.S. House (2013-present)

University of Miami

It’s funny to see Marco Rubio running as the “old man” in the race but that’s what we have here. Murphy was actually a member of the Republican party until 2011 when he switched his party affiliation to the Democrats (as did former Florida Governor Charlie Crist, who Rubio defeated in the 2010 Republican Senate primary).

Florida is a state that has extensive polling and thus it’s easier to draw conclusions than in a lot of other states. Rubio has been ahead of Murphy in every single poll taken since July (with the exception of two polls showing a tie). The Real Clear Politics average of polls currently shows him with a 3.2% edge.

Given the enormous name recognition advantage that the incumbent Senator has over his younger opponent, it’s a bit surprising that this race isn’t a wipe-out (like Portman’s advantage over Strickland). Still, between the relentless super-PAC ads run against him during the GOP primaries and the news that he was the chamber’s biggest absentee Senator with lots of missed votes, Rubio’s reputation has been a bit battered this year.

Regardless, Rubio will almost certainly win and the question will be what he does in the Senate. His every move will be highly scrutinized because he remains a likely future presidential nominee for the Republican party.

The polls in Florida close at 7:00p ET (which is as early as any state) so the results should be known fairly quickly. If the race is too close to call at that time, that will be good news for the Democrats. If it’s called for Rubio, it’s a hold of serve.

So, as we update our scorecard, pencil this in as another “hold” for the GOP.  That would make the magic number four (out of the remaining six seats up for grabs) for the GOP and the magic number three (out of six) for the Dems.

 

MAGGIE HASSAN (D) vs KELLY AYOTTE (R)

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Kelly Ayotte (R) — incumbent (48 years old)

First-term Senator

New Hampshire Attorney General (2004-2009)

Penn State University, Villanova Univ. of Law

Maggie Hassan (D) (58 years old)

New Hampshire Governor (2013-present)

New Hampshire Senate Majority Leader (’08-’10)

Brown University, Northwestern Law School

This race, between a sitting Senator and sitting Governor, is one of the toughest to call. Until the last week, Ayotte was significantly outperforming Trump in this independent-minded state; she’s leading by 2% in the most recent RCP average of polls while Clinton was up 5% in those same polls but now they’ve tightened.

Ayotte and Hassan are both popular with their respective parties. Ayotte was quoted in one of their debates saying that “yes” Donald Trump could be a role model for which she has been hammered in repeated TV ads. It’s hard to say how the support or lack of support for Trump will play here and in other states. It’s a tightrope that all of the GOP candidates are walking.

The polls in New Hampshire close at 7:00p ET but I would be very surprised if there is a network “call” for this race. I think this will be neck and neck and be decided ultimately by less than a percentage point. If either Hassan or Ayotte emerge at 7:00p ET with a sizable lead, you can expect that their respective party is the odds on favorite to own the Senate.

 

EVAN BAYH (D) vs TODD YOUNG (R)

INDIANA (seat held by retiring Dan Coats)

Todd Young (R) (44 years old)

3-term member U.S. House (2011-present)

U.S. Marines (1995-2000)

U.S. Naval Academy, Indiana U. Law School

Evan Bayh (D) (60 years old)

Former 2-term Indiana Governor (1989-1997)

Former 2-term U.S. Senator (1999-2011)

Indiana University, University of Virginia Law School

The Young-Bayh contest is really interesting. The Hoosier State is the one that delivered the knockout blow for Trump during the Republican primaries. It also has current Governor Mike Pence on the ticket as Trump’s VP nominee. So that would normally mean an easy win for the Republican candidate but the Democrats are running a heavy hitter in Evan Bayh. As a former Governor and Senator, Bayh has almost universal name recognition in the state while Todd Young does not.

Early in the race it seemed like a shoo-in that Bayh would win but the GOP has spent a small fortune to paint him as the ultimate Washington insider. Bayh owns four homes but only one is in Indiana and it’s a second story condo in Indianapolis in which he almost never sleeps. In a way, he has a Hillary Clinton problem. Since leaving the Senate, Bayh’s net worth has risen from $7.7 million in 2010 to $48 million, thanks to board compensation, speaking fees and lobbying. Combine that with the fact that Bayh voted for ObamaCare, a law becoming increasingly unpopular with skyrocketing premiums, you’re looking at some serious vulnerabilities.

For the Republicans, Young is an appealing candidate. An ex-Marine with a good smile, he fits Trump’s “change” message far better than his opponent.

After being behind by double digits months ago, the polls now show Young with a slight lead and, given Trump’s huge advantage in the state, I predict that Young pulls it out. The polls close at 6:00p in Indiana, which is split between the Eastern and Central time zones. Therefore, the networks won’t report any numbers until 7:00p. If Bayh wins the state, that doesn’t mean the Republicans can’t still control the Senate but it reduces the margin for error.

 

NORTH CAROLINA

RICHARD BURR (R) vs DEBORAH ROSS (D)

Richard Burr (R) — incumbent (60 years old)

Two-term Senator (2005-present)

Five-term U.S. House member (1995-2005)

Chairman Senate Intelligence Committee

B.A. from Wake Forest University

Deborah Ross (D) — 63 years old

Member of North Carolina Gen. Assembly (’03-’13)

State Director of ACLU (1994-2002)

Brown University, UNC Chapel Hill Law School

Burr is a 12th cousin of Aaron Burr, the former Vice-President who is best known for killing Founding Father Alexander Hamilton in a 1804 duel.

Like Florida and Ohio, North Carolina is a must-win state at the top of the ticket for Trump. The irony for Burr, a member of Congress for over two decades, is that he resides in the “swamp” that Trump wants to drain. Under Trump’s “term limits” proposal (which will never pass), Burr would not be allowed to run.

Of course, Burr is running and he has a formidable opponent in Ross. whose prior career as Director of North Carolina’s American Civil Liberties Union positions her perfectly to wage the battle against the state’s unpopular anti-transgender bathroom bill. The Tar Heel State, which used to be reliably Republican, is now the quintessential swing state.

Based on the polls, Burr is running about 2 points ahead of Trump (who trails Clinton by 1). If Trump can keep the state a nail-biter toss-up, Burr will likely hold the seat for the Republicans. The polls will close at 7:30p ET. If Hassan is winning in New Hampshire, Bayh is winning in Indiana, and the networks show Ross winning when the polls close in North Carolina, this seat would be the clincher for the Dems.

 

KATIE McGINTY (D) vs PAT TOOMEY (R)

PENNSYLVANIA

Pat Toomey (R) — incumbent (54 years old)

First term Senator, 3 terms in House (’99-’05)

On Budget, Finance & Banking Committees

B.A. in government from Harvard College

Katie McGinty (D) (53 years old)

Chief of Staff for Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf

Former environmental advisor to VP Al Gore and President Bill Clinton

St. Joseph’s University., Columbia Law School

This is one of the closest Senate races in the 2016 cycle, the outcome of which may very well be the one that decides the balance of power. Toomey won his seat in 2010 by the thin margin of 51%-to-49% over Joe Sestak. Remember that 2010 was a “wave” mid-term election in favor of the Republicans (Obama referred to it as a “shellacking”) but Toomey’s margin of victory was not as great as other Republicans in the Keystone State. Republican Tom Corbett won the Governor’s race by nearly 10 points and the GOP flipped four House seats by similar margins. The point is that Toomey wasn’t a landslide winner in a year that heavily favored Republicans.

Toomey has run his campaign independently from the top of the ticket, steadfastly refusing to say whether he supports or does not support Donald Trump. Despite that waffling, as the incumbent with the advantage that come with it, Toomey is running about four points better against McGinty than Trump is against Clinton (the Donald trails Hillary by 6 points currently).

As you can see from their resumes, McGinty is a candidate with a focus on environmental issues while Toomey is involved in matters of finance.

Even though McGinty is currently up 3 points in the polls, this race is still too close to call. The bad news week for Clinton may save Toomey and ultimately (for the GOP) control of the Senate.

Let me put it this way: if the race is called for Pat Toomey when the polls close at 8:00p ET, that will signal very clearly that the Republicans have held the Senate. If the networks call the race for McGinty or if it’s too close to call, then it’s likely that the ultimate outcome of the Senate balance of power will be very much in doubt for the rest of the evening.

 

JASON KANDER vs ROY BLUNT

MISSOURI

Roy Blunt (R) — incumbent (66 years old)

First-term Senator

Seven-term House member (1997-2011)

House Majority Whip (2003-2007)

SW Baptist U., Masters degree Missouri State U.

Jason Kander (D) (35 years old)

Missouri Secretary of State (2013-present)

Army National Guard, served as lieutenant in Afghanistan.

American University, law degree at Georgetown University

The Missouri contest is the mirror image of Indiana. In Roy Blunt, you have the long-time Washington politician. With Kander, a young, fresh face with a military background. This is a state that the Republicans should be easily winning (Trump is up by 7 points) but Kander’s appeal has made it a coin flip.

Kander’s campaign put together one of the best television advertisements in this entire election cycle. It features Kander assembling an AR-15 rifle in 20 seconds while wearing a blindfold. In red states like Missouri, the NRA spends tons of money on Republican candidates. This ad, in which Kander says that he supports the Second Amendment but favors background checks to prevent terrorists from getting them, is an extraordinarily effective counter-measure.

This is pretty cool. You have to watch this:

Jason Kander TV ad

I think that Blunt will likely pull out this contest because the state will go in such a big way for Trump, especially with Clinton’s recent troubles. The coattails at the top of the ticket will likely be long enough to give Blunt a win but I wouldn’t be shocked if Kander gets the upset. The polls close here at 7:00p CT (8:00p ET)

 

CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO (D) vs JOE HECK (R)

NEVADA (seat held by retiring Harry Reid)

Joe Heck (R) (55 years old)

Three-term House member (2011-present)

U.S. Army Reserve since 1991

Penn State grad, board certified surgeon

Catherine Cortez Masto (D) (52 years old)

Nevada Attorney General (2007-2015)

Former criminal prosecutor U.S. Attorney’s Office

University of Nevada, Reno, Gonzaga Law School

Cortez Masto, whose father Manny Cortez was the head of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority and a longtime friend of retiring Senator Harry Reid, is trying to become the first Latina member of the Senate (her father was of Mexican descent and her mother of Italian descent).

In 2010, during the outrage of the passage of ObamaCare, the controversial House Majority Leader Reid was considered vulnerable but he won re-election fairly easily over a really bad Tea Party candidate, Sharron Angle. This year Reid, who will turn 77 years of age in December, decided to retire and Cortez Masto is his hand-picked successor. Unlike in 2010, the GOP have nominated a solid candidate in Heck. He created a mini-firestorm a few weeks ago when he joined the ranks of the Trump “disavow” club after the release of the Access Hollywood tape. A Monmouth poll taken within the week after Heck announced that he was withdrawing support from Trump found that over 40% of the billionaire’s supporters felt that Heck was not giving enough support to the party’s presidential nominee.

Overall, the polls have bounced back and forth between Cortez Masto and Heck. In the last nine polls, five show Cortez Masto with the lead, three with Heck on top and one tie. Because so many residents of Las Vegas are transient in nature or work at odd hours, political scientists always tell us that the Silver State is hard to accurately poll. It should be noted that, in 2010, Angle led Reid in the final 8 polls taken in the month prior to the election; on Election Day, Reid won a decisive victory (by 5.6%).

With Cortez Masto the handpicked successor of the Senate Minority Leader, do NOT underestimate the power of Reid’s “get out the vote” machine in Las Vegas, in particular with the 57,000 members of the Culinary Union. Since this is the one state with a really close contest that’s in the Pacific time zone (polls closing at 7:00p PT), it may be the race that ultimately determines the outcome of the balance of power in the Senate and that’s going to make a lot of Republicans nervous.

Unless the polls in the final week show a decisive advantage for Heck, if I were in Vegas and betting on the outcome of this race, I would be inclined to wager on Cortez Masto. So if this race is the ultimate “decider” on the Senate balance of power, the Democrats may be very happy on Election Night.

 

Finally, a look at the four match-ups that were considered toss-ups earlier but whose outcomes are virtually certain and will be confirmed on Election Day:

TED STRICKLAND (D) vs ROB PORTMAN (R)

OHIO

Rob Portman (R) — incumbent (60 years old)

First term Senator, six terms in House (1993-2005)

On Budget, Finance, Homeland Security Committees

Dartmouth College, Michigan Law School

Ted Strickland (D) (75 years old)

Ohio Governor (2007-2011), lost re-election bid to John Kasich

5 terms in U.S. House (1997-2007)

University of Kentucky (PhD)

Portman, who has often been mentioned as a potential Republican VP pick because he serves in Ohio, is the GOP Senator who is out-performing Trump by more than any other. He’s out-polling Strickland by nearly 15 points in a state where Trump is in a virtual flat-footed tie. Portman was one of the first prominent Republicans to disavow Trump upon the release of the Access Hollywood tape, in which the reality TV star was heard bragging about hitting on a married woman and being able to kiss and grope women without objection because he’s a celebrity.

Like the state’s governor (Kasich), Portman is a fairly moderate Republican and is mirroring Kasich’s widespread support that crosses party lines. This seat is an easy “hold” for the GOP.

 

ANN KIRKPATRICK (D) vs JOHN McCAIN (R)

ARIZONA

John McCain (R) — incumbent (80 years old)

Five-term U.S. Senator (1987-present)

Chairman Senate Armed Services Committee

Chairman Senate Commerce Committee

Ann Kirkpatrick (D) (66 years old)

Three terms in House (’09-’11, ’13-present)

B.A. Univ. of Arizona, J.D. Arizona Coll. of Law

This seat is another slam dunk “hold” for the Republicans in the Senate but McCain and the GOP are not treating it as such. This year (and in 2010), McCain was viewed as vulnerable because he’s annoyed both sides of the aisles. He looks like he’s getting a root canal whenever asked about Trump. He clearly has no love for the Donald but offers his tepid support as the “party’s nominee” in order to not offend the horde of Trump supporters.

It doesn’t matter. Kirkpatrick is not a strong enough candidate to defeat the long-time Senator. If McCain doesn’t hold this seat, not only will the GOP lose the Senate, it won’t be close. With all of Hillary’s recent troubles, it won’t happen.

 

TAMMY DUCKWORTH (D) vs MARK KIRK (R)

ILLINOIS

Mark Kirk (R) — incumbent (57 years old)

First-term Senator, 5 terms in House (2001-’10)

U.S. Navy Reserve (1989-2013)

B.A. Cornell U., M.D. London School of Economics, J.D. Georgetown U. Law Center

Tammy Duckworth (D) (48 years old)

2 terms in House (2013-present)

U.S. Army Reserve (1990-2014)

B.A. Univ. of Hawaii, M..A. George Washington University

Duckworth is an Iraq war veteran who is a double amputee from injuries suffered in 2004 when a Black Hawk helicopter she was co-piloting was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade fired by Iraqi insurgents. This was always going to be a tough seat for Kirk to hold but the race likely ended when he made a disparaging remark about her heritage during a recent debate. When Duckworth referred to her family’s history of military service dating back to the Revolutionary War, Kirk’s retort was “I’d forgotten that your parents came all the way from Thailand to serve George Washington.”

Well, the truth is that Duckworth’s mother is from Thailand and her father (who died in 2005) was from the U.S. and an Army veteran. It was her father’s family roots that dated back to the American Revolution. Kirk apologized the next day but it was a terrible moment in a race he was already losing.

Mark this race as called for future U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth.

 

RON JOHNSON (R) vs RUSS FEINGOLD (D)

WISCONSIN

Ron Johnson (R) — incumbent (61 years old)

First-term Senator

Chairman Senate Homeland Security Committee

University of Minnesota

Russ Feingold (D) (63 years old)

Three-term Senator (1993-2011)

5 terms in Wisconsin Senate (1983-1993)

Univ. of Wisconsin, Univ. of Oxford, Harvard Law

The Johnson v. Feingold contest is a rematch from their race in 2010 in which Johnson ousted the incumbent Senator as part of the GOP’s Tea Party wave. This was the same year that saw Scott Walker become the state’s Governor.

Unlike most of the names you’ll see in these Senate contests, Johnson is not a career politician. He’s a multi-millionaire businessman in the plastics industry whose first run at political office was in 2010. Feingold (a Rhodes Scholar), on the other hand, is a long-time household name in Badger State politics, joining the state Senate just four years after earning his law degree from Harvard.

According to a U.S. News and World Report column, part of Johnson’s problem is that he never really worked at turning himself into that household name in his home state. He’s been on TV a lot but didn’t do enough retail politicking in Wisconsin. Johnson is also struggling to thread the Trump needle and the Donald isn’t especially popular in the Badger State (he’s losing to Clinton by 7 points and, remember, he lost to Ted Cruz here during the primaries).

In an electorate that swings from Republican in the off years to Democrat in the presidential years, this should be an easy-pick-up for the Dems. However, the recent news about nationwide rises in ObamaCare premiums could be the one issue that pulls a rabbit out of the hat for Johnson. Feingold was in the Senate when the ACA was passed and Johnson is running ads trying to take advantage of that issue. It’s unlikely to be enough but if the Clinton-Trump race tightens to a toss-up, anything can happen.

Thanks for reading.

Chris Bodig