Some thoughts about the two CNN Democratic debates this past Tuesday and Wednesday. In the first debate (on Tuesday), the first 30-35 minutes were about health care. It was a battle of the moderates (Steve Bullock, John Delaney, John Hickenlooper, Tim Ryan, and Amy Klobuchar) against the left (Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders). The main topic was the Medicare for All proposal embraced by Warren and Bernie. I’m not sure where Mayor Pete stands, don’t really care where Beto O’Rourke or Marianne Williamson stand.
One of the many points made by the moderates was that the Medicare for All plan would eliminate the health care plans of a hundred million Americans who already have health care through their company plans.
Bernie’s retort is that the normal health care plans have deductibles and co-pays while his plan would cover everything for everybody (an oversimplification to be sure).
What Ryan and Bullock and particular said was that there were millions of people who liked their insurance and don’t want to lose it. Ryan made the point that there are many union workers (particularly in Michigan) who have lost their jobs and the ONLY thing they have left is their superior health care coverage.
My take is that Bernie & Warren are missing a big point when they say that they’re plan is “better” in that those union workers that Ryan and Bullock are talking about already have a health plan that is “better” than what most other Americans have.
The Bullock/Ryan point (Biden says this a lot too) is that union workers sacrificed other things (higher wages, etc.) in exchange for things like better health coverage.
What nobody said is that those union workers who have negotiated health coverage might feel a little bitter that somebody (Warren/Bernie) wants to put them on a level playing field with the rest of America. To that union worker, it would be rational to think “I deserve health care BETTER than the rest of America because I sacrificed other things for it.”
The politics of grievance will be front and central in the general election next year. It may also play a significant role in the Democratic primary.
Now let’s move on to the second night debate, otherwise known as the bash the Biden pinata party. I thought it was somewhat hysterical that most of the Dems’ on the stage spent their time smacking down the record of their beloved Barack Obama, because it was the best way to pummel Obama’s loyal VP, Joe Biden. Listening to some of those Dems last night, you would think Obama was a moderate Republican rather than a liberal Democrat. “Obamacare sucks!! Obama was the deporter in chief!” Of course, the CNN anchors set this up both nights with their questioning: “Senator X, Senator Y has called your health care plan a pile of rhinoceros shit. What is your response to Senator Y?”
Andrew Yang was good, Jay Inslee was good, Cory Booker was good. It probably won’t help any of them. Biden held his own against the incoming fire. He didn’t suck and by not sucking he won.
What’s interesting about Biden is that he might be the best candidate against Trump but it’s less than 50-50 that he can survive the liberal-progressive gauntlet and their media allies. The pundits on CNN and MSNBC don’t seem to understand that the majority of Democratic voters don’t want to blow up the current health care system. People who HAVE insurance definitely don’t want to lose it. Biden dominates the polls because he’s normal and he’s familiar.
Biden has 5 weaknesses that could ultimately take him down in the Democratic primaries:
- He says dumb things and is a gaffe-machine, mixing up his facts.
- He’s not as well versed in the nitty gritty details of policy as his younger, more studious and energetic rivals.
- He’s old. Actually old (76 years old) and sometimes seems old and befuddled.
- He used to have (or still has) some very old fashioned views on a woman’s role in the home. Not to mention the creepy touchy-feely thing.
- He’s the “settle for” and “safe” candidate and closer to moderate than progressive. He’s to the right of the party base. He won’t get big crowds.
The funny thing about these five weaknesses is that only one of them would be a weakness against Trump. That one weakness is #5. Biden will never get the passion and crowd size that Trump gets.Biden’s other four weaknesses?
- Saying dumb things, mixing up facts? No problem against Trump, the ultimate “facts don’t matter” President.
- Not well versed in details? Let’s just say he could clean Trump’s clock on policy details.
- Being old? Not a problem against Trump, who is only 3 years younger.
- Woman problem? Let’s just say, not compared to the President.
#5 is important and could well be decisive. Biden could certainly turn some blue collar Obama-turned-Trump voters in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but can he inspire turnout in the Democratic base the way Trump will on his side? That’s the big question the Democrats have to answer.
Right now it seems like the energy is with Elizabeth Warren. Forgive me for being politically incorrect but, if you’re a Democrat, I must ask if you want to take another shot with another East Coast, pantsuit wearing female liberal Senator who, by the way, is 70 years old herself, only 3 years younger than Trump? I can’t prove this and you can’t poll it (because people won’t admit it) but I am certain that there is a small percentage of persuadable voters (the kind who decide elections) who are resistant to a female president. And it’s not just that there are some men who might feel this way. I met a late-40’s woman last month who doesn’t think a woman should be president. They’re out there. Dismiss this as a serious factor at your peril.
I am a poll-a-holic. I go to Real Clear Politics every day. It’s EARLY, obviously, but Biden has NEVER lost to Trump in any poll, ever, and has won all but one or two outside the margin of error. Notably, he won a recent Fox News poll by 10 points over Trump. The President wasn’t happy with his favorite network. In the last 15 Warren-Trump polls, Warren has won 8, Trump has won 5 and there have been 2 ties. These polls can change of course but pay attention to them. You better believe Trump is paying attention. Why else does he mention “Sleepy Joe” far more than “Pocahontas”?
Thanks for reading.