The GOP’s “Sweet 16”

Today, the most crowded presidential field anybody can ever remember grew to sixteen today when Ohio Governor John Kasich announced that he was running for the Republican nomination for President of the United States.

Kasich joins a field that includes eight current or former governors, five current or former U.S. Senators, 2 business people and a renowned neurosurgeon.

While most of the oxygen in the news coverage in recent weeks has been devoted to the bombastic and controversial Donald Trump, Kasich, as the latest entry, offers perhaps the GOP’s best candidate in this packed derby.

Just as there are now sixteen candidates, it’s just sixteen days until the first major debate on Fox News but not all sixteen will be on the stage together.  The powers that be at FOX decided that, in order to have a semblance of coherence, only the top 10 candidates in a blended average of recent polls would be allowed to participate. The network will offer the other six candidates a one-hour “forum” (which some have called the “kiddie corner” debate) at 5:00p ET, a few hours before the main event.  This entire horse race, which may last the full 12 months before the Republican convention (July 18-21, 2016) promises to be one of the most fascinating races ever for political junkies, since the majority of these candidates are legitimately qualified to be President and could do very well if given the top job in the land.

For those of you who have followed my political blogs over the years, consider this the first of many regarding the 2016 election.  I’ll try to keep them a little shorter, the kind you can read in 5-6 minutes instead of some of the novellas I’ve posted in the past.  This first one is going to be super simple: I’m going to offer my own personal thoughts on the sixteen candidates in just a handful of sentences with much more to come on most of them in the future.  I’m putting them in order of my own “horse racing” handicapping likelihood of them actually gaining the nomination.

Before I get into the “countdown,” I will make the point that Donald Trump is currently leading the national polls of Republican voters (I’ve personally encountered two friends of mine who support him for President) and yet I have him here listed as a 100-to-1 candidate.  The case of Trump requires a blog until itself (which is probably how he likes it) where I’ll explain further why I consider him such a long shot and (perhaps) a hidden agenda he might have here.

Anyway, here’s the list:

Jeb Bush (4-to-1): former Governor of Florida, son and brother of former Presidents

With the Bush name and fund-raising prowess, he is one of the front-runners by default.  I personally, as a Republican, don’t like the idea of “Bush v Clinton” for the presidency (seems like a losing proposition to me) but he is very different from his brother, which will become apparent as the campaign develops.  He speaks fluent Spanish and is married to a Mexican, which would be a huge boon in a general election but, by not being hard-line on immigration, hurts him with the right wing of the primary electorate.  He’s a little dull but he’s authentic; you can believe that he means what he says.

Scott Walker (4-1): Governor of Wisconsin

He has won three elections for Governor in Wisconsin as a Republican, an impressive feat because this is a leaning blue state that voted for Obama in 2012 despite native son Paul Ryan on the ticket.  He appeals to “mainstream” Republicans and Tea Party folks alike, a powerful combination, which is why he’s considered a favorite.  Consider also that the first caucus state is in the neighboring state of Iowa, which gives him a huge opportunity to win and build momentum for the other states to follow.

Marco Rubio (5-1): U.S. Senator from Florida

Rubio was vetted by Mitt Romney’s team for the vice-presidential nod in 2012 and would have been a good choice.  He is a young Senator (as Obama was in 2008) which is a negative but he also has the leadership experience of having been Speaker of the House of the Florida legislature.  As a Cuban-American, he would be the first Latino President of the U.S., which would help him in the general election and makes him a likely VP choice if he’s not the nominee.  He’s fluent on the issues (especially foreign policy) and telegenic but he has to work on two things that are distracting to his on-camera persona: he licks his lips too much and squints a lot.  These things are important today as it was when Nixon was sweating in his debate against JFK.

Most pundits (of which I am one) believe that the Republican nominee for President is very likely to come from the trio of Bush, Walker or Rubio.  But there are 13 other contenders; I’ll start here with today’s newest entrant.

John Kasich (14-1): Governor of Ohio, former U.S. Congressman & Senator

If I could anoint the nominee personally, I’d pick Kasich.  He has the right resume in both Washington and at the state level as Governor he’s Governor of a REALLY important swing state (Ohio) for the general election.  He also is a get it done kind of guy, willing to work with the other side.  Kasich will have a tough road to the Republican nomination because he’s not lock-step with all “litmus” test issues (accepted Obamacare money for Medicaid in his state and supports Common Core) but this guy is as authentic as it gets and he wins among Democratic voters.  He won 26% of the African-American vote in his re-election rout in Ohio.  It’s my opinion that, if he is the GOP nominee, he will defeat Hillary Clinton easily.

Mike Huckabee (17-1): former Governor of Arkansas

I might be overrating him a bit here (if you can call 17-1 overrating) but he won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, he’s really likable and especially popular with social conservatives.

Ted Cruz (20-1): Senator from Texas, former Solicitor General in Texas

I would not underestimate Cruz.  He is probably the most right-wing of the Republican candidates which is an asset to him.  He’s also highly intelligent and should do well articulating his case in the debates.  Personally, I don’t think he would be an effective President because he’s not the type to compromise on much of anything.

Carly Fiorina (20-1): former CEO of Hewlett-Packard

The national polls have Fiorina at around 2%, I’ve put her at 5% with these odds.  I do so because, having watched numerous interviews with her, she is extraordinarily well-versed on the issues and is also highly effective in communicating her responses.  She doesn’t ramble, she speaks concisely and intelligently, which will serve her well if she makes the debate stage. Assuming Fiorina doesn’t win the nomination, she’ll be on the top of the VP lists.

Rand Paul (50-1): Senator from Kentucky

Like his father before him, Paul will get a good chunk of votes who like his libertarian message but, also like his father, it’s hard to see him growing beyond his core of support.

Rick Perry (100-1): former Governor of Texas

I’ve seen a lot of Perry interviews and he is much, much more prepared than he was in his disastrous 2012 run for President.  If this wasn’t such a crowded field, he might be a candidate for a great “2nd impression” story but there are too many first-time candidates for a re-run from 2012 to break through.

Chris Christie (100-1): Governor of New Jersey

If he had run in 2012, when he wasn’t prepared (by HIS own admission) he might well have beaten Mitt Romney; he was the rising star in the Republican party.  Unfortunately for Christie, his embrace of Obama after Hurricane Sandy and the “Bridgegate” controversy will leave him stuck in proverbial traffic.

Donald Trump (100-1): business mogul and host of NBC’s “Apprentice” series

I’ll write about him more separately.  He speaks to the anger in the Republican electorate but he’s unfiltered and can’t stop putting his foot in his mouth.

Dr. Ben Carson (100-1): former neurosurgeon at Johns Hopkins Hospital

He’s a top five candidate in most polls but I can’t see him breaking through.  He probably has the highest IQ in the field but has no political experience and it shows.

Rick Santorum (200-1): former Senator from Pennsylvania

He was 2nd to Romney in 2012 but there are too many others fighting for the same “anti-establishment” voters this time, can’t see his path with so many other candidates.

Bobby Jindal (200-1): Governor of Louisiana

He’s not currently popular in his own state, which doesn’t help.  He’s another brilliant guy but isn’t a great communicator; he speaks too fast and I can’t see where he gets his voters from.

Lindsey Graham (1,000-1): Senator from South Carolina

He’s in the race to make sure that Trump and Paul don’t win, he has no chance.

George Pataki (1,000-1): former Governor from New York

He’s the least well known of the 16 candidates.  He would probably be a good president but there’s no way he breaks out of this pack.

 

Thanks for reading!

Chris