(please enjoy a late-added note at the end of this blog about how Carly Fiorina dominated the early debate, now onto our regularly scheduled programming)
It’s only a few hours until the unofficial kickoff of the Presidential derby, the Fox News debate for the Republican candidates at 9:00p ET/6:00p PT. The top 10 candidates in the most recent polls will face off, with billionaire Donald Trump taking center stage. Because of The Donald’s presence at the center of the fray, this will almost certainly be the most-watched primary debate in American history.
I’ll be at a cocktail party tonight so I won’t be watching live but will be grateful for DVR technology: here is what I think will happen and what each of the top 10 candidates will be seeking to accomplish.
1. This will NOT be all about Trump but it will seem that way when the “post-game” shows analyze what happened. The format of the debate is that the three Fox moderators (Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace) will ask questions to each of the candidates; the candidates will then have one minute to respond to the question. The only “debating” will occur if one of the hopefuls attacks one of his rivals by name; the named rival will then have 30 seconds to respond to that attack. My guess is that Trump will get one or two more questions than the other nine but not more than that. Each of the ten will get their opportunities to make their cases.
2. Most of the other nine contenders will NOT take on Trump because, given the format, anyone you attack automatically gets more airtime and he has shown the ability to throw a vicious counter punch. The debate is scheduled to last for 2 hours but when you factor in commercials, intros and moderator questions, there’s probably about 90 minutes of time for each of the ten to talk. That’s only nine minutes each so I would expect that all of the candidates will focus on why they are the right man for the job and not why the others aren’t.
3. For reasons #1 and #2, I think many will viewers be a bit disappointed. This will not be a GOP primary debate version of the Celebrity Apprentice. I would not expect a lot of fireworks. If there are any, it will be because the moderators provoke one of the candidates with a question that is tilted towards a criticism they’ve already made of one of their opponents.
4. All of the candidates will attack Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton like pinatas and will all try to make the case why they are the best candidate to beat Hillary in the general election.
5. Most of the candidates will try to throw in a clever one-liner, the type of sound bite that will play in the ensuing news coverage.
Here is what I would expect from each of the ten candidates individually, what their opportunity is and what land mines await.
1. Donald Trump: he has skyrocketed to the top of the polls and has been severely underestimated by the pundits, including this one. There is no way I’m sticking by my “100-to-1” shot prediction of just a few weeks ago. He’ll tell you that his poll numbers are “tremendous” and he’s right. I still don’t think he will win the nomination but the gains he’s made in just two weeks are stunning. The percentage of GOP registered voters who say they would “never vote for him” has plummeted from nearly 60% to 33%. He is proving to be the Teflon Don. Everything he says, no matter how outrageous, doesn’t stick but rather serves to increase his support. He is a media pro and has masterfully gotten the lion’s share of the news coverage for the last month. He has the most to gain and also the most to lose tonight.
My guess is that he’ll be asked about today’s Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal by Karl Rove highlighting his previous liberal positions (being pro-choice, anti-gun and support for a single payer health care system). If his only response to that question is that Rove is a clown and “overrated” (one of his favorite terms), Republican voters (most of whom probably don’t know about Trump’s liberal views of yesteryear) will notice and won’t like it. I would also expect The Donald to be asked to specifically to explain how will achieve one of his most bombastic claims, that he will get the country of Mexico to build a wall along the entire southern border and that he will also get Mexico to pay for it !!
I also would expect Trump to be asked about his veiled threats that he might run as a third-party candidate if he’s “not treated well” by the Republican National Committee. If there’s any opportunity for the other nine candidates to attack Trump it would be on this issue.
I don’t expect Trump to attack any of his nine stage-mates specifically but I am certain that he will attack them all collectively in the following way: he will make the point that all of his rivals are controlled by lobbyists and the big money donors that they are soliciting for cash. He will brag about his wealth and make the point that he will not have to re-pay any favors to the donor class.
2. Jeb Bush: he needs to show that he is the adult in the room and to clearly articulate his conservative governing record in Florida. He will certainly be asked about the “baggage” of his family name and he may be asked about having a national security team of advisers that include many who were a part of his brother’s administration. Bush, who is married to Mexican woman and is bilingual, should make the case that he can appeal to the Latino voters but he will need to reassure the conservative voters that he no longer supports amnesty for illegal immigrants.
3. Scott Walker: he will likely be asked a difficult national security question because he has no experience in foreign affairs. Walker has a lot of potential for growth because he is liked by both Tea Party folks and evangelicals. He will surely make the case that he took on the public sector unions in Wisconsin and won. But it’s not enough to just say “I beat the unions” but to clearly articulate the benefits the state reaped from that victory and how that can translate to presidential leadership.
4. Mike Huckabee: a lot of people say that Huckabee should avoid appearing too conservative on social issues because of the difficulties that would engender in a general election. I disagree: this debate is about appealing to conservative voters, particularly in Iowa. He needs to remind them that he was their man in 2008 and is the champion of conservative principles. I don’t personally agree with those positions but that’s what he needs to do. He will also undoubtedly be asked about his comment that the Iran nuclear deal will “lead Israel to the oven.” He needs to defend that comment to the hilt and remind voters that, although is political experience is as a governor of Arkansas, he has traveled the world extensively.
5. Ben Carson: the renowned neurosurgeon is a brilliant and thoughtful man and will probably have the most difficulty navigating the one-minute time limits on the answers to questions. He will also likely be asked a tough foreign policy question. Carson has a lot to lose here, he has no political or business-building experience and may appear not ready for prime-time. But he also has the potential to ride Trump’s Washington outsider coattails. When Trump makes the point that politicians don’t get anything done, if Carson can cleverly say “me too” he could appear as the more measured and reasonable outsider.
6. Ted Cruz: he is the most likely attempt to ride Trump’s coattails. He has gone out of his way not to criticize any of The Donald’s bombastic and controversial comments. Cruz is a master debater and may very well get a bump from his performance tonight by reminding the voters that he has consistently been the leader of the fight against Obama’s policies.
7. Marco Rubio: he needs to distinctly show the audience how fluent he is on issues of foreign policy as a member of the Foreign Relations committee. He’ll also want to make the point that he isn’t a GOP version of Obama (an inexperienced first term Senator), that he was actually Speaker of the House of the Florida legislature before running for the U.S. Senate.
8. Rand Paul: he will attempt to contrast himself with the other candidates as being the most anti-war member of the GOP. Paul will stick to his libertarian guns but will need to throw red meat to the conservative base. He was one of the leaders in the fight to de-fund Planned Parenthood in Congress and needs to show the audience that he’s their champion in the pro-life fight.
9. Chris Christie: the New Jersey governor is the one who’s most likely to directly take on Donald Trump, but not directly. He may make a comment about realistic proposals and take a thinly veiled shot at Trump’s notion that Mexico will pay for a wall on the border. Christie, a former prosecutor, must remind the voters what they liked about him four years ago (before Hurricane Sandy). He needs to mimic the bombast of The Donald but in a way that makes him look more presidential. I still don’t see any path to victory for Christie but if he has any chance at all, it must start tonight.
10. John Kasich: because the debate is in Cleveland, the Ohio Governor has the “home-court” advantage and will likely get a boost by the audience. People watching at home are more likely to cheer a candidate if the crowd is cheering in the arena. Kasich needs to get his bio out to the large viewing audience, that he’s the son of a postman. One of the things that I like about him is that he is authentic but also realistic. While most of the GOP contenders talk about “tearing up” the deal with Iran, Kasich is more realistic on that topic. If he can effectively communicate that most politicians make promises that are impossible to keep but that he doesn’t play that game, he could have a big night. One pitfall he must avoid: he’ll be asked about his decision to expand Medicaid in the state of Ohio as part of Obamacare. He must explain that he was doing what he felt was best for his state but must absolutely not lecture his rivals and can’t say anything that even sounds like he’s saying “you’re a bad person” if you don’t do more to help the poor. Four years ago, Rick Perry (before his “oops” moment), said “you don’t have a heart” if you didn’t support his position of giving in-state tuition rates to illegal immigrants and it hurt him a lot among conservatives.
As for the under-card debate (which starts in less than an hour and features the seven low-rated candidates), they key is to produce a memorable sound bite. Fox has said they will use clips from the early debate during the main event. Getting a memorable quote is the best shot for those seven but the truth is, by being off the stage in tonight’s main event, their candidacies have been severely wounded.
Late add at 7:45p: Carly Fiorina absolutely killed it in the early debate and can expect a big boost in her poll numbers. Every single pundit I’ve seen so far declared her the clear winner. Every one, and it’s more than a dozen. Then, shortly after the debate, appearing on MSNBC, she was chastised by Chris Matthews for saying that Hillary Clinton was liar and she gave it back to Matthews really hard. Fiorina has a full command of the facts on every issue that a presidential candidate needs to know about it. She is tough and competent and will be a player in this process.
Thanks for reading!