The Politics of Celebrity

The leading Democratic candidate for president is being investigated by the FBI for the use of a personal email server and by a congressional subcommittee regarding the terrorist attack in Benghazi. She has given just one national TV interview since declaring her candidacy.  When she conducts a press conference she has the demeanor of somebody enjoying a root canal.  Recent polls have shown that the majority of Americans view her as dishonest and untrustworthy. The majority of news coverage about her is negative yet she is leading her competitors by a mile.

The leading Republican candidate for president is running a campaign as a reality show contestant. He has offended Latinos, military veterans, and women with incendiary comments.  In all national polling, a higher percentage of American have an unfavorable view of him than favorable. The vast majority of news coverage about him is negative and yet he is leading his competitors by a mile.

By all normal political “rules,” Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump would be toast, discarded into the ash bin of failed presidential candidates due to their own self-destructive actions and statements. But they are still the front-runners for their parties: Hillary is still by far the likely Democratic nominee and, although he faces a vastly more robust field of competitors, it can no longer be said that the Donald has “no chance” to win the GOP nomination. They are winning their races for a variety of reasons. Their appeal to their supporters is varied but they have one thing in common: they are mega-celebrities, two of the most well known people in the United States and their lesser known competitors are facing a daily challenge to make news and get their messages out to the American people.

Let’s start with the Democratic front-runner. What exactly is the appeal of Hillary Clinton as a potential commander in chief? Well, she was the first lady to the president for eight years and therefore had the ability to observe the decision-making process and daily challenges that the leader of the free world has. She served as a U.S. Senator and then as Secretary of State. Strictly by the resume and depth of her experience, she is immensely qualified to be president. She also has the benefit of potentially being the first woman to serve as President of the United States. There are a large number of people who will vote for her for her gender alone, just as there were an untold number of people who voted for Barack Obama because of the color of his skin. For Democratic voters and those who want to see her crash through the glass ceiling, no scandal short of a criminal indictment will dissuade them from supporting their champion.

Now, what is the appeal of Donald Trump to be the next president? First, he is a non-politician. Americans nationwide are fed up with the dysfunction that has infected Washington under the Bush and Obama presidencies. Being an outsider is his biggest asset. Second, unlike Mitt Romney, he talks about his immense wealth as a positive thing and brags about it. One of the most effective things he says is that, unlike the Clintons and his GOP rivals, he cannot be bought. The influence of money in politics is something that most Americans find distasteful; when he says that Clinton, Jeb Bush and others will be controlled by lobbyists and donors, that strikes a chord. Third, he says things that many Republican voters feel but no other politician will dare to say. He’s brash, he’s politically incorrect and he is completely unapologetic for every controversial thing he says (or Tweets). Finally, and this may be the biggest, he is a shrewd negotiator; he could not achieved his billionaire status in business without being so. When he asks, “who would be better at negotiating with China, Trump or Bush?” the answer is The Donald. This is the man who wrote The Art of the Deal, one of the best-selling books of all time. The ability to negotiate, the ability to compromise, the ability to persuade and charm, the ability to MAKE A DEAL is something that is lacking in our current president and a key selling point for Trump as president.

I’m a Republican who does not support Trump’s candidacy but I find myself nodding my head in agreement at many things he says. He is a master showman, a master salesman and, though a novice at politics, has an extraordinarily keen political instinct.  A recent example: he has made comments that he would raise taxes on hedge fund managers because they can afford it and just “shuffle papers around”  to earn their wealth. Raising taxes is a no-no for Republicans but he can get away with it because he’s Trump. This is brilliant: one of the biggest bludgeons that the Democrats of the Obama era have used against Republicans is the claim that the GOP wants to cut taxes for millionaires and billionaires. If Trump somehow becomes the GOP nominee, he has removed this wedge issue from the political equation.

Essentially, the man with the red hair is a bigger, brasher version of Chris Christie, who captured the imagination of the Republican electorate four years and would have been a formidable competitor to Romney if he had decided to run then. They call the presidency the “bully pulpit” and Trump is a bully but he is also shrewd and understands leverage. The reason that he has still not publicly ruled out a third-party independent bid for the presidency is that, as long as he dangles that doomsday scenario in front of the GOP, he can ensure that the party establishment doesn’t create a cabal to boot him out of the primary race.

So the life experiences of both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both qualify them to be President of the United States. But I am many others are horrified at the notion of a Clinton v Trump race next fall (remembering that Trump is still a long shot, but certainly not a 100-1 shot as I’ve written about before). After the polarization of the Bush and Obama presidencies, do we really want another president that so many Americans intensely dislike or even hate? I’m a Republican and I don’t hate Hillary but I absolutely do not want her to be in the Oval Office. She has an air of entitlement and arrogance that does not befit the position. This whole email mess is a problem of her own creation, born of her intense need for control and secrecy. If you think the Obama administration lacks transparency, wait until you see the next President Clinton. As I wrote about in March, if her name wasn’t Hillary Clinton, this email controversy would have sunk her into oblivion but, because of her celebrity, “inevitability” and history-making potential, she still survives politically, but as a severely weakened and damaged candidate.

I don’t hate Donald Trump either; I really liked him as the host of The Celebrity Apprentice. But do we really want a president who calls everyone who doesn’t agree with him or he doesn’t like a loser, who refers to illegal immigrants as “murderers and rapists” and has a history of misogynistic statements? There is an element of dignity and decorum that we should want in our president. I’ll admit, having a “tough guy” sounds appealing after seven years of a president who figuratively bows down to the rest of the world but a president who is wont to make ad hominem attacks risks creating unnecessary diplomatic crises.

A recent Quinnipiac University poll (this is a well-respected polling outfit) showed Hillary with a 23-point lead over socialist candidate Bernie Sanders and Trump with a 16-point lead over Dr. Ben Carson and 21-point lead over Bush, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. These are big leads to be sure but it’s still five months until the voting begins and, in the same poll, a minimum of 25% of all respondents hadn’t “heard enough” about the other candidates to say whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion.

An interesting and unique element of this poll, was that the respondents were asked an open-ended question about the first word that comes to mind when thinking about Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush. I split the responses into three categories, negative, positive and biographical. So, for instance, regarding Hillary, the number one word was “liar” (negative), the most positive word was “experience.” Terms I would describe as biographical included “Bill” and “woman.” For Trump, the biographical words included “businessman” and “rich.”

This is a chart that shows the total number of positive, negative, or biographical words that first came to respondents’ minds when they were polled (you’ll notice a lot more biographical words for Bush, who doesn’t evoke the same level of negativity as the other two).

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The top three “first words” for Hillary were “liar,” “dishonest,” and “untrustworthy.”

The top three “first words for the Donald were “arrogant,” “blowhard,” and “idiot.”

The top three “first words” for Jeb were “Bush,” “family,” and “honest.”

So, this really isn’t promising for either of the front-runner. It means that, in the unlikely event of a Trump presidency or a far more likely event of a Clinton presidency, we can expect another 4-to-8 years of nasty partisanship and a divided nation. We need a president who can bring people together, a Republican that the left and live with or a Democrat who the right can live with. There are candidates on both sides who fit that criteria but they are not named Hillary or Donald.

For the record, since I know you’re interested, I’ll finish below with the lists of the words used by at least ten of the respondents in that aforementioned poll.  Some of these will make you laugh out loud.

First word that comes to mind when thinking of Hillary Clinton:

liar (178), dishonest (123), untrustworthy (93), experience (82), strong (59), Bill (56), woman (47), smart (31), crook (21), untruthful (19), criminal (18), deceitful (18), Democrat (16), intelligent (15), email (14), politician (13), Benghazi (12), corrupt (12), crooked (11), capable (10), determined (10), good (10)

First word that comes to mind when thinking of Donald Trump:

arrogant (58), blowhard (38), idiot (35), clown (34), businessman (34), honest (30), ego (29), money (29), outspoken (28), crazy (26), rich (26), showman (23), strong (20), asshole (18), joke (16), pompous (15), leader (15), egomaniac (13), loudmouth (13), racist (13), big-mouth (12), buffoon (11), unfavorable (11), braggart (10), brash (10)

First word that comes to mind when thinking of Jeb Bush:

Bush (136), family (70), honest (53), weak (45), brother (41), dynasty (40), experience (35), George (28), Florida (25), politician (24), Republican (24), moderate (21), governor (20), establishment (16), conservative (14), father (14), legacy (13), nice (13), trustworthy (13), untrustworthy (12), decent (11), education (10), competent (10), favorable (10), boring (10), nepotism (10), war (10)

Thanks for reading.

Chris Bodig