The State of the GOP Race

It’s been two weeks now since the Republican presidential debate on CNN and, since I can’t help myself, thought I would share a few thoughts about what’s happening in the race right now.

The most significant development is that Donald Trump’s support has softened since that debate. It seems clear that his act is starting to wear a little thin. Carly Fiorina took him down a few pegs that night with her reasoned, knowledgeable, precise and presidential performance. After the debate, most pundits (and, as it turns out, voters) felt that Fiorina won it handily, with Marco Rubio also doing extremely well and (to a lesser extent) Chris Christie.

In the last two weeks, Trump has declared “war” on a new target and an old one: Marco Rubio and Fox News.  This time it seems that voters are starting to grow weary of his bombast.  He declared again that Fox News was treating him unfairly and decided to temporarily boycott the network (a boycott that ended Tuesday night with an appearance on The O’Reilly Factor).  When Trump started his boycott, the network’s official response said that his personal attacks on its’ hosts had grown “stale and tiresome.”

Just asking: who is the other famous public figure who often complains about Fox News?  The answer: President Obama.  Just asking again: if Trump has a hard time with Fox News, how is he really going to do with Vladimir Putin?

The difference is that Obama has gotten used to the Fox-bashing; Trump isn’t and doesn’t like it.  He’s shown throughout this campaign that he is remarkably thin-skinned.  When he is criticized, his response is not to debate the message but to personally attack the messenger. But that tactic seems to be losing its effectiveness. At the Value Voters Summit last week in Iowa, he referred to Rubio as a “clown,” a comment that led the audience to boo him resoundingly. Trump’s biggest asset and biggest vulnerability is that he speaks his mind in a totally unfiltered way. Essentially, he’s “winging it,” which works well for him on the stump but clearly not in the debates.

What Trump needs to learn is that, when he uses terms like “lightweight, clown, and loser,” he LOSES any chance of gaining the support of somebody who LIKES the person he’s attacking.  I like Fox News’ Megyn Kelly, I like John McCain, I like Carly Fiorina and I like Marco Rubio.  When he calls Kelly a “bimbo,” when he says (of McCain) “I like people who weren’t captured,” when he criticizes Fiorina’s face and when he calls Rubio a “clown” it PISSES ME OFF and you’ve lost me.

Anyway, the following chart shows the Real Clear Politics average of the five most recent polls (all post-debate) and also the five most recent polls taken BEFORE the debate.  Take a look at the numbers (remembering that Scott Walker dropped out of the race a few days after the debate):

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Five major national polls have come out in the last two weeks and the result is clear and striking: Trump’s decline has begun. Based on the five polls taken SINCE the debate compared to the five most recent polls taken BEFORE the debate, The Donald has lost about 6.8%, a loss of nearly a quarter of his support. He’s still the clear front-runner but, when you’re way ahead and start slipping, it’s hard to stop the slide.  The number one thing he talks about on the stump is how great he’s doing in the polls, “look at me, vote for me because I’m winning.” The moment he’s not winning, he’s done.

One of the interesting things I’ve found in the narrative of the news coverage is that I see a lot of headlines and commentary that neurosurgeon Ben Carson is surging in these polls. The truth of the fact is that he is NOT surging, he’s declining too, just not as much as Trump is, so the race at the top is closer. The two candidates who are clearly surging are the debate winners Fiorina and Rubio.

Anyway, I spent some time recently coming up with a bunch of questions that probe into the strengths and weaknesses of each of the candidates and then ranked them each on a scale of 1 to 10.  These are all my personal preferences so many of you will disagree severely with some of these rankings.  I picked 12 criteria for each of the top 8 candidates (I excluded Huckabee, Paul, Santorum, Jindal, Graham and Pataki because they’re really low in the polls and I just don’t think much about them).

Here are the questions:

1. Is the candidate charismatic and media savvy?  To what degree do they command attention?  Are they effective in using the free media time they get?
2. How good are each of the candidates at expressing themselves concisely at the debates?  Do they make the most of the limited time they have?
3. Is the candidate likable and authentic? When they say something, do you wonder whether it’s a poll-tested opinion or what they truly believe?
4. What is the state of the candidate’s fundraising? (This is hard to know precisely but I’ve offered my best guesses)
5. To what degree does the candidate understand and articulate detailed foreign policy positions?  Is the candidate a credible Commander in Chief?
6. Does the candidate understand how the economy works?  Can they credibly claim that they will be able to create jobs?
7. What is the appeal of the candidate to the “base” of GOP voters, who are mostly socially & fiscally conservative, anti immigration and anti-Washington in general?
8. What is the appeal of the candidate to Latino voters?  (the Republican candidate MUST do better with this growing constituency than Mitt Romney did in 2012)
9. What is the appeal of the candidate to women voters? (remember the candidate will most likely be running against Hillary Clinton and the “first female president” factor)
10. A key question: is the candidate ready for the job?
11. Does the candidate have a good track record to run on against Hillary (or Joe Biden if she collapses under the weight of the email scandal)?
12. An issue that doesn’t seem important to the GOP base right now but is important when actually governing: does this candidate have the ability to work across the aisle with Democrats to get things done (a la Ronald Reagan and Tip O’Neill)?

Anyway, here is my chart:

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Those who know me or have read my previous posts know that I’m a big fan of Marco Rubio, John Kasich and Carly Fiorina so it shouldn’t be shocking that they rank as the top 3.  I’ll finish with a few thoughts about each of the eight listed candidates based on those rankings.

Marco Rubio: the only candidate to whom I gave a 6 or higher in every category. The only negatives about Marco are his youth and lack of governing experience. These are significant and certainly he is not the most prepared to be president.  But he’s the GOP’s best shot to win both the primary and the general election.

John Kasich: he’s still my first choice but it’s going to be very tough for him to win the nomination. He has a “base” problem.  As governor of Ohio, he accepted the expansion of Medicaid under Obamacare which, in the minds of a lot of conservatives, is a deal-breaker. If he managed to win the nomination, he would mop the floor with Hillary.  He’s the kind of Republican that Democrats voters could support.  Of course, that fact is why he likely won’t get the chance.

Carly Fiorina: her biggest strength is also her biggest weakness and that is her tenure as the CEO of Hewlett-Packard, a position from which she was fired. In essence, she has a bit of a Romney problem, that of a Republican CEO who shipped jobs overseas while getting a multi-million dollar severance package. As a California resident, I am keenly aware of how successful the attack ads were against her when she ran for the Senate against Barbara Boxer. She is clearly prepared for this job and will be a formidable candidate in this race but I think, as an overall strategy for winning, she would serve the party better as the VP nominee where her controversial record at HP won’t matter. As the VP, her primary role in the campaign will be to beat Hillary Clinton like a pinata, something to which she has displayed exceptional skill.

Jeb Bush: don’t underestimate the non-Trump fund-raising king.  TV advertising money matters and he and his super PAC have it in abundance. He would make a terrific president and, possibly even more than Rubio, will appeal to Latino voters because of his soft rhetoric of immigration, ability to speak Spanish and Mexican-born wife. But I will always prefer one of the “top 3” on my list because I fear that “Bush fatigue” might be as severe as “Clinton fatigue.”

Chris Christie: if he can slowly creep up in the polls, he will continue to remind people why they liked him in the first place. Still a major long-shot but he’s entertaining without being an a-hole.

Donald Trump: I’ve written about him plenty but I’ll just make this point because I, like him, am obsessed with the polls. Every “head to head” poll between Trump and Hillary Clinton that I’ve seen (with one exception) shows Hillary winning by a significant margin. The other candidates often beat her and are always in the game.

Ted Cruz: I am not personally a fan but he should not be underestimated. If Trump and Carson actually disappear from the race he could scoop up a lot of their support because he is the “outsider-insider,” the one candidate with experience in government who has battled the Republican establishment.

Ben Carson: I really don’t get it.  He’s likable and brilliant but he’s doesn’t have any governmental or management experience (sitting on lots of boards of directors doesn’t count).  I just think people like him.  They like Trump’s outsider mantra but they don’t like Trump so they go with Carson when the pollsters call.  It won’t be the same when it’s time to go to the ballot box.

The next debate is on CNBC on Wednesday, October 28th.

Thanks for reading.

Chris Bodig