Can Donald Trump actually win the GOP nomination for President? Would he be a good president? And, having now observed him as a front-runner for months, I’ll ask the question, should he be the nominee if you’re a Republican who wants your party to re-take the White House?
To question number one, the answer is “yes,” he absolutely could win the nomination. I’ll eat some humble pie on that question considering that I called him a 100-to-1 shot just 4 months ago. The answer to the second question (would he be good at it) is hard to know for sure but the answer to the third (best choice for the GOP?) remains “No, no, no, no, no, no!”
At the risk of being brandished a total loser or a highly overrated person, if you’re a Trump supporter (or know somebody who is), please take a few minutes to hear me out and don’t call this blog a complete disaster.
I like Trump, I like him a lot. I’ve always admired his business success and acumen and was a huge fan of The Celebrity Apprentice. I find it hugely ironic that Trump’s successor as host of that reality TV show will be Arnold Schwarzenegger who, in many ways, is the precedent for what Trump is attempting to do. Schwarzenegger, like Trump, was a highly intelligent and hugely popular celebrity who ran his first political campaign for a big, big job. In American politics, there are only a handful of jobs bigger than being the Governor of California. The Presidency of course is one of that handful.
Before I tackle the politics of how Donald Trump could win the nomination and whether he could defeat Hillary Clinton if he manages to win the GOP primary contest, I’ll ask a different question: forgetting for a moment whether you agree with some of his more extreme policy positions, would he be a good president if elected?
That is a very tough question and I’ll be a little nervous if we all get a chance to find out the answer. He could be great, his presidency could be huuuuuge!! Or he could kill us all in a nuclear holocaust if he calls Vladimir Putin a loser one too many times. There is such a wide spectrum of potential outcomes.
The pros are this: he is a very smart man and a shrewd man. He is master salesman and a brilliant showman. A big part of the presidency is to sell your vision to the American people, not just to win the office but continuously while you’re in office. When the American people are on your side, Congress follows. Trump is a deal-maker: this is crucially important in an era of partisan strife. If he needs a certain number of Democratic senators to back a bill he favors, he could be uniquely skilled at winning them over, either as a bully, with wink-wink-nod-nod “bribes” or through the power of persuasion. His deal-making ability could possibly also be a huge asset in dealing with other countries. From everything I’ve heard and read, he is really engaging in person; when he says he’ll “get along” with Putin, that’s not impossible to envision. As Trump keeps talking about how he would get Mexico to pay for the wall on our southern border, although very unlikely, I can see him actually getting it done as part of a bigger negotiation. Another asset is that he, as a business executive, will hold people accountable in a way that the current administration hasn’t. Simply put, sometimes when you’re the president you need to say “you’re fired” to those that serve you.
Now, the cons: Trump would absolutely loathe me for writing this, but there are some similarities between Trump and Barack Obama and those similarities are not good. In fact, they are a total disaster. First, they are both self-absorbed; they both are in love the sound of their own voice. Remember what it was like 8 years ago? Obama was going to change the world with the force of his charm and personality. Trump says he will change the world with the power of his negotiating ability. There is nobody running for president with an ego as big as Obama’s except for the Donald’s. Another thing they have in common is that both men are thin-skinned; they don’t respond well to criticism. They demonize their enemies, widening the chasm between them. Trump calls people losers or overrated. Obama has been the most divisive president ever, mocking and belittling his Republican rivals in such a way that politicians and member of the public who don’t agree with him just hate his guts for being such a jerk.
The biggest risk I see with a President Trump should not surprise any of you: I question his temperament. Does he have the self-discipline to keep his mouth shut when he needs to? Does he have the ability to be diplomatic and tone down his bluster when he needs to? On the campaign trail, it’s clear to me that he’s trying to do this: again, he’s a smart man, but he may not be able to help himself.
Another risk I see is that Trump is used to having his way. It should be abundantly clear during the Obama years that presidents don’t get everything they want, especially as it relates to domestic policy. I saw a very interesting interview recently with Charlie Rose and Robert Costa, who is a reporter for the Washington Post covering the Trump campaign. In this interview (about 6 weeks ago) Costa said that Trump was genuinely surprised that he was doing so well and never expected to win when he entered the race: he was running to make a point. I’ve always looked at the Trump campaign as a “bucket list” item for him. I question if he is mentally prepared to do this job. Certainly he’s not yet up to speed on the vast array of foreign issues he will need to be but, on another level, it seems like he’s making this all up as he goes along. There’s another aspect about being mentally prepared: is he ready to commit 8 years of his life to what is an often brutal job? Like Obama, I’m sure he’ll enjoy being president with all the pomp and circumstance that accompanies the office. But how early in his administration will he start mailing it in? Who would finish their presidencies with more rounds of golf, Trump or Obama?
OK, next question: can he win the nomination? I think it’s foolish, with him having led the polls for months, to continue to say that he can’t win it. The answer is, of course he can win it. He is the Teflon Don, no matter what crazy or inappropriate things he says, his support barely wavers. A few weeks ago, the kinder, gentler outsider (Dr. Ben Carson) moved up into a virtual tie with Trump but, in the first two polls taken after the Paris attacks, the good doctor has begun his inevitable fade. With a renewed focus on combating terrorism from Al Qaeda and ISIS, tough guy Donald trumps gentle Ben. After having been virtually tied, now, in the two most recent national polls, Trump is now 10 points ahead of Carson and between 14 to 21 points ahead of the next two candidates, senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. A candidate who has had this much support for this length of time must be taken seriously.
There is one recent development, however, that might make a difference: several GOP organizations and other candidate super-PAC’s are getting ready to spend tens of millions of dollars in attack ads (against Trump) in New Hampshire and Iowa. These ads will highlight Trump’s many non-conservative views over his lifetime and some of the crazier utterances from his mouth during the primary season. Months ago I predicted that these ads would eventually run and bring down The Donald but it really feels to me that his supporters might be immune to this. They already know he used to be pro-choice, they already know he used to donate money to Dems, they already know he used to support a single payer health care system. And they just don’t care.
As always, this will all come down to what happens in the first in the nation Iowa caucuses (on February 1st) and the first in the nation New Hampshire primary vote on February 9th. If Trump wins both, the only way he loses is if virtually everyone else drops out of the race and really fast. Right now there are four strong candidates (Trump, Carson, Rubio, Cruz) and, in my personal opinion, four dark horses (Bush, Kasich, Christie and maybe Fiorina). If any of the dark horses manages a third place finish in Iowa or New Hampshire, they might stick around to the third event (the South Carolina primary on February 20th). Trump’s whole candidacy is based on the fact that he’s winning. If he succeeds in actually winning the first two contests, that momentum may be tough to stop.
My guess is that there will only be four candidates left by then, not necessarily the current “big four.” The best hope to defeat Trump is for him to start going one-on-one with either Rubio, Cruz (or, more and more less likely, a come-from-behind dark horse). As long as there are four or more people in the field, the non-Trump candidates will split the non-Trump vote and he will win. Once it’s down to two to three, the numbers will shift.
Now, finally, let’s tackle the most important question: can Donald Trump defeat Hillary Clinton in a general election campaign? Let’s assume that Clinton will be the Democratic candidate. The only way she isn’t going to win her primary is if she’s indicted for a crime for something related to her email scandal. Short of that, she’s going to be the Dems’ nominee. There are a few reasons why I feel that Trump is a problematic Republican candidate in a general match-up against Hillary.
First, the obvious one: Trump’s hard-line anti-immigration stance (his plan to deport all 11 to 12 million illegals) will hurt him tremendously with the Latino vote. Now, it’s insulting to say that Latino’s are one-issue voters, they care about the same things (jobs, the economy, social issues, foreign policy, terrorism) that everyone does. However, Latino voters are much, much more likely to personally know somebody who Trump wants to send packing out of the USA. There’s a degree of meanness to Trump’s plan that is offensive to non-Latino voters as well (such as yours truly). In each of the last three presidential elections, the Republican candidates share of the Latino vote has dropped. If Trump is the candidate, it will likely drop further, ensuring defeat.
The second reason is that Trump has a problem with women. His multiple demeaning comments about Carly Fiorina temporarily took him down a peg. In the most recent debate, when Fiorina muscled her way into a discussion with another candidate, Trump said “why does she keep interrupting?”, prompting boos from the audience. When asked about his stance with women, he always says “I cherish women” the line itself sounds paternalistic. I am concerned that, during a campaign, and particularly during one of the debates, that Trump will say sexist things to and about Hillary. As she will keep reminding us, she would be the first woman to occupy the Oval Office as president. The last thing the GOP needs is for a candidate who embodies the outdated cliche that a woman should be one step behind the man.
The third reason is that, if Trump is the nominee, the three best ticket-balancing options for the vice-presidency (Rubio, Fiorina and Kasich, the popular Governor of the critical swing state of Ohio) will be unavailable to him. He has mocked, demeaned and belittled all three of them to such a degree that he could not credibly choose any to be his running mate. He would likely have to fish outside of the pond of excellent Republican candidates.
The fourth reason is that Trump as the Republican candidate is not as well positioned to exploit some as Hillary’s vulnerabilities as a candidate. Trump likes to talk about he used to buy and own politicians and that he (as a billionaire) can’t be bought. But when asked how he “bought” the Clintons, all he could come up with was that he got them to come to his wedding. So what, who cares? The amount of cash that the Clintons have accumulated post-2000 is in the tens of millions. The Clinton Foundation donations have in part subsidized corporate jet travel for the couple. With Hillary and The Donald it’s rich vs richer. And finally, both Trump and Clinton are from yesterday’s generation (Trump is 69, Hillary is 68). Either 40-somethings Cruz and Rubio would bring a generational choice, which usually favors the more youthful candidate.
The fifth and final reason is that I think Hillary Clinton would significantly out-debate Trump and those debates are critical in a close race. In 2012, Mitt Romney dominated Obama in the first debate and surged to a slight lead but he couldn’t sustain that momentum in the last two contests, seeming to disappear entirely in the third session. Hillary is extremely well practiced in the debate format; she did nearly twenty of them in 2008 against Obama. On foreign policy in particular, she will display a vastly greater depth of knowledge. Trump will learn over the next 12 months but Hillary was fully immersed in foreign affairs for four years as Secretary of State and and six years on the Armed Services Committee, not to mention her eight years in the White House during her husband’s presidency.
Now, it’s true, that Hillary has some significant vulnerabilities on foreign affairs: she can be tied to the various failures of Obama’s foreign policy, particularly as it relates to the growth of ISIS and she didn’t have any notable accomplishments as Secretary of State. But still, her knowledge is vast. My belief is that the GOP candidate needs to have a breadth of knowledge and fluency on these issues to match her on the debate stage. Unlike Trump, both Rubio and Cruz have shown that they are excellent in the debate format and would more than hold their own on the facts.
I’m not saying it’s impossible for Donald Trump to defeat Hillary Clinton, I’m saying that he’s not the Republican Party’s best bet. The following chart below shows the Real Clear Politics average of the last five “match-up” polls between Hillary and five different GOP candidates.
RCP Avg. Last Five Polls GOP Candidate Hillary Clinton +/- Ben Carson 47.4% 45.0% +2.4% Marco Rubio 46.0% 44.6% +1.4% Ted Cruz 44.5% 45.8% -1.3% Jeb Bush 43.4% 45.3% -2.0% Donald Trump 43.2% 47.6% -4.4%
Trump has been touting the most recent Fox News poll, in which he beats Clinton head to head 46%-to-41%. But another poll (PPP), taken at the same time, showed Hillary ahead by one point. In the last 12 head-to-head polls, Hillary beats him in 9 out of 12 (with one tie).
(Incidentally, Carson has continuously done best in the head-to-head match-ups but I think he would get vastly outclassed by Hillary in the debates as he’s even weaker in the format than Trump.)
So, Trump certainly could win it all, but it’s a huge gamble, a gamble by the Republican voters to put him up as the nominee and a gamble for the nation.
President Donald J. Trump could be huge!!!!!
Or he could be a complete disaster!!!
We’re better off nominating somebody else.
Thanks for reading.
Chris Bodig