Reaction to Tuesday’s CNN Debate

Who won the debate Tuesday night, the last one in 2015 for the Republicans vying for their party’s nomination to be the next President of the United States?

With a heavy emphasis in the debate on fighting terrorism and foreign policy, here’s my quick ranking of the performance of the nine participants in the main debate and, more importantly, the level to which their support will grow or decline:

1. Ted Cruz: the Texas Senator came into the debate as the hot item, since he has been the top dog in four of the last six polls in the first in the nation caucus state of Iowa. A master debater, Cruz did not disappoint his supporters and probably gained new ones.  Besides drawing a sharp contrast with Marco Rubio on the issue of Rubio’s Gang of 8 immigration bill, Cruz also painted a strong and credible picture of himself as a potential Commander in Chief. Although Cruz, quite frankly, misstated his prior position on allowing a path to legalization for illegal immigrants, it’s a nuance that may go unnoticed by the caucus-goers in Iowa who are looking for a “true conservative.” Cruz is a darling of the right-wing talk radio hosts, has garnered key endorsements in the Hawkeye state, and could credibly be called the front-runner in the race, even as he trails Donald Trump substantially in the national polls.
2. Chris Christie: the New Jersey Governor, toiling in the low single digits in national polls, has built a considerable amount of momentum in the first primary state of New Hampshire. Although Trump is way ahead in the New Hampshire polls, Christie has started polling in double digits; a strong finish there could move him from being out of the race to a legitimate comeback kid.  Christie delivered another strong debate performance, drawing a sharp contrast to Cruz and Rubio as Senate debaters and himself as a governor and former federal prosecutor who already has experience fighting terrorism. Christie was the one candidate who really understood that he was speaking to the television audience at home; while the other candidates spoke to each other and the moderators, Christie made most of his points directly to the camera.
3. Marco Rubio: the Florida Senator was more truthful in his sparring sessions with Cruz but probably lost the battle on points. Rubio was attacked by both Cruz (on immigration) and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul (on foreign policy), the only candidate other than Trump who faced a two-front attack. Still, I think Rubio’s support will continue to grow slowly but surely and he will continue to gain inevitability as the “establishment” candidate. Rubio had a magnificent moment towards the end of the debate when given the opportunity to display his superior command of national security issues. One of the moderators, Hugh Hewitt, asked Trump a sort-of “gotcha” question about which leg of the “nuclear triad” he considered the most important. It was clear that Trump had absolutely no clue what Hewitt was talking about, so Hewitt turned to Rubio, who clearly knew exactly what the nuclear triad was. Rubio said “Maybe a lot of people have not heard that terminology” (clearly referring to The Donald) and explained to the audience (and Trump) that the nuclear triad refers to the nation’s ability to conduct nuclear attacks from airplanes, submarines or in-ground silos. It was a “who is prepared to be commander-in-chief” moment in which Rubio shined and Trump failed.
4. Donald Trump: if I was ranking the candidates solely on substance, Trump would be last. But to his supporters he did just fine: he continued his tough-guy and take no prisoners stance. His proposal to ban all Muslims from entering the United States is patently outrageous, not to mention completely impractical. But, in the current climate of fear about ISIS terrorism, over half of Republican voters agree with the position. So you have one demagogue (Trump) offering the extreme position and twelve other mostly rational candidates who think the proposal is insane, Trump gets those hard-line voters. It’s absolutely brilliant politically even if reprehensible. Trump and Cruz were both wise not to attack each other but to continue their bromance.
5. Rand Paul: I don’t agree with the Kentucky Senator on his isolationist-leaning foreign policy positions, but he articulated them well. If you’re a libertarian minded Republican, you liked what you heard. Will it help him get out of the low single digits in the polls? I think not.
6. Carly Fiorina: she was superb on substance as always but her debate performances have not resulted in any sustained rise in support. After the second debate (her first on the main stage), she soared in the polls but then slowly receded. I don’t know if she just doesn’t have a good campaign organization of if GOP voters don’t like that she’s from California but she hasn’t caught on and now that everyone expects her to do well in the debates, strong performances won’t help her anymore. She’s now auditioning to be the eventual nominee’s VP choice.
7. Jeb Bush: the former Florida Governor did fairly well in appearing as an adult compared to the childish Trump but it doesn’t matter anymore. I’m glad he called out The Donald on his proposed Muslim travel ban but nobody is listening to him anymore. He is becoming increasingly invisible in this race. His Super PAC runs ads promoting his candidacy in what seems like every ten minutes on Fox News and he remains stuck in quicksand.
8. John Kasich: the Ohio Governor, like Bush, is visibly frustrated by the circus atmosphere Trump’s candidacy has created. He keeps talking about the importance of “getting along” and “getting things done” but apparently the angry Republican base doesn’t want to hear about cooperation. They want confrontation instead and this is why Trump and Cruz are winning.
9. Dr. Ben Carson: the retired neurosurgeon has plummeted in the polls in the wake of the Paris and San Bernadino attacks. The electorate wants bluster and tough talk, not soft-spoken philosophy. I think Carson really got into this race to sell books and, if his poll support continues to drop in Iowa, he may bow out before the caucusing begins. He didn’t do badly in this debate but he didn’t do anything to reassure voters that he’s ready to be Commander in Chief.

So, here’s what I would expect to happen in the next four weeks, before the next debate on January 14th in South Carolina.

• Trump maintains his seemingly prohibitive lead in the national polls but Cruz moves to within striking distance (less than 10 percentage points behind).
• Cruz takes a commanding lead in Iowa, leading Trump by more than 10 points.
• Cruz starts getting more endorsements from the hard right and Tea Party affiliated pols.
• Rubio moves into a solid third position nationwide, creating a substantial amount of distance between himself and Carson (who is currently just 0.6% behind).
• Rubio starts to pick up endorsements from existing Republican establishment types and elected officials.
• Carson continues to fall and possibly exits the race if he drops to mid-single digits in Iowa.
• Christie remains low in the national polls but challenges Rubio and Cruz for 2nd place in New Hampshire (while Trump maintains a substantial lead in the Granite state).
• Bush’s Super PAC stops spending money on ads promoting Bush and starts running negative ads against both Trump and Cruz.
• Kasich, Fiorina, Paul, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum hang around if they can afford to just in case some heretofore unknown scandal relating to Trump appears and changes the entire dynamic of the race.
• I don’t know what George Pataki is still doing in this contest.
• Lindsey Graham stays in the race to keep telling us that the U.S. needs ground troops in Iraq and Syria.

Ultimately, and this is hardly an original position, this looks like it is turning into a three-horse race (Trump, Cruz and Rubio). Trump has an enormous and loyal following of supporters that are immune to every crazy thing he says. Cruz has run a brilliant campaign, he’s well-financed and well-positioned to gain a significant share of the evangelical and Tea Party vote.

If this turns into a three-way race, Rubio has an advantage that the others do not. He will very quickly pick up endorsements and big money donors from the establishment class of the GOP. The people and donors supporting Bush, Christie, Kasich and others will all flock to Rubio. In a three-way race, Rubio might be able to slip up the middle while Trump and Cruz vie for the talk radio, Tea Party and angry vote.

Thanks for reading!

Chris Bodig